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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University2.15+10.07vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+8.61vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island2.78+3.28vs Predicted
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4Boston College2.14+5.11vs Predicted
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5Brown University2.40+4.98vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.59+3.95vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University2.07+2.50vs Predicted
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8Cornell University2.38-1.14vs Predicted
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9Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.66+2.24vs Predicted
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10University of California at Santa Barbara2.04-2.42vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.17-3.71vs Predicted
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12University of Wisconsin1.70-1.43vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University-1.38-1.88vs Predicted
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14U. S. Naval Academy1.97-4.93vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College2.38-7.80vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan1.12-3.88vs Predicted
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17University of Miami1.93-7.70vs Predicted
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18College of Charleston1.12-5.86vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.07Tufts University2.152.9%1st Place
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10.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.003.5%1st Place
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6.28University of Rhode Island2.7811.2%1st Place
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9.11Boston College2.144.9%1st Place
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9.98Brown University2.404.7%1st Place
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9.95University of Pennsylvania1.594.4%1st Place
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9.5Roger Williams University2.074.6%1st Place
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6.86Cornell University2.3810.0%1st Place
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11.24Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.663.1%1st Place
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7.58University of California at Santa Barbara2.048.8%1st Place
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7.29U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.179.6%1st Place
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10.57University of Wisconsin1.704.2%1st Place
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11.12Jacksonville University-1.383.5%1st Place
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9.07U. S. Naval Academy1.975.9%1st Place
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7.2Dartmouth College2.388.6%1st Place
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12.12University of Michigan1.122.8%1st Place
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9.3University of Miami1.934.4%1st Place
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12.14College of Charleston1.123.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ansgar Jordan | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% |
| Charles Carraway | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.1% |
| Kerem Erkmen | 11.2% | 11.4% | 9.3% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Robert Hunter | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Jack Murphy | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% |
| Cameron Wood | 4.6% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% |
| Bridget Green | 10.0% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| John Ped | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% |
| Chris Kayda | 8.8% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% |
| Daniel Unangst | 9.6% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Samuel Bartel | 4.2% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% |
| Emily Allen | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 9.8% |
| Gray Benson | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 2.5% |
| William Michels | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Joe Serpa | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 8.2% | 11.2% | 16.4% |
| Aidan Dennis | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 2.5% |
| Pierce Ornstein | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 15.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.