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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+8.26vs Predicted
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2Tufts University2.15+7.46vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.90+4.77vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University1.94+3.79vs Predicted
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5Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.66+4.78vs Predicted
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6Dartmouth College2.380.00vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.32-1.08vs Predicted
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8Boston College2.56-1.40vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy1.49+0.96vs Predicted
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10University of Wisconsin0.94+2.25vs Predicted
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11University of Miami0.84+1.39vs Predicted
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12Brown University2.29-3.96vs Predicted
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13Jacksonville University-1.38-3.66vs Predicted
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14College of Charleston1.97-6.42vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.70-6.90vs Predicted
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16University of California at Santa Barbara1.85-7.97vs Predicted
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17University of Michigan0.08-2.27vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.26Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.005.1%1st Place
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9.46Tufts University2.154.7%1st Place
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7.77University of Pennsylvania1.907.0%1st Place
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7.79Roger Williams University1.946.7%1st Place
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9.78Massachusetts Institute of Technology1.664.2%1st Place
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6.0Dartmouth College2.3811.3%1st Place
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5.92U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.3210.7%1st Place
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6.6Boston College2.569.6%1st Place
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9.96U. S. Naval Academy1.494.5%1st Place
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12.25University of Wisconsin0.941.8%1st Place
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12.39University of Miami0.842.2%1st Place
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8.04Brown University2.296.3%1st Place
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9.34Jacksonville University-1.385.1%1st Place
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7.58College of Charleston1.976.9%1st Place
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8.1Cornell University1.706.0%1st Place
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8.03University of California at Santa Barbara1.857.0%1st Place
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14.73University of Michigan0.080.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 5.1% | 2.1% |
| Ansgar Jordan | 4.7% | 6.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 3.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Mathieu Dale | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% |
| John Ped | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 1.9% |
| William Michels | 11.3% | 11.5% | 9.7% | 9.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nicholas Reeser | 10.7% | 11.4% | 10.7% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Colleen O'Brien | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Louis Margay | 4.5% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 4.0% |
| Hailey Feinzig | 1.8% | 1.5% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 11.6% | 18.1% | 14.1% |
| Zachary Ward | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.3% | 11.2% | 18.0% | 16.6% |
| Olivia Belda | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Emily Allen | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 5.2% | 2.7% |
| Max Anker | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.5% |
| Lukas Kraak | 7.0% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Samuel Ephraim | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 8.8% | 14.5% | 50.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.