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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.55+4.59vs Predicted
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2Stanford University3.90+5.97vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College4.05+4.32vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.05+7.21vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.16+5.75vs Predicted
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6Washington College2.84+6.19vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University4.36-1.01vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.78vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.95-1.46vs Predicted
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10University of Michigan2.97+1.90vs Predicted
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11U. S. Naval Academy3.67-2.06vs Predicted
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12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+0.55vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California2.93-1.33vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.01-2.89vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.82-7.02vs Predicted
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16George Washington University3.49-6.47vs Predicted
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17College of Charleston3.73-8.36vs Predicted
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18Connecticut College2.59-5.10vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.59Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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7.97Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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7.32Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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11.21SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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10.75University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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12.19Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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5.99Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.22St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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7.54Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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11.9University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
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8.94U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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12.55U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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11.67University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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11.11University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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7.98Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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9.53George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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8.64College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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12.9Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Landy | 13.2% | 12.5% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 5.4% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 5.3% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Matthew Wefer | 7.9% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Nick Valente | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 8.3% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 6.5% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.8% | 1.5% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 10.0% | 9.8% | 14.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 11.3% | 11.9% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.2% | 8.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Fletcher Sims | 8.2% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| William Macdonald | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.3% |
| Alex Ramos | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 11.0% | 10.7% |
| Michael Grove | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 1.8% |
| Bradley Milliken | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 10.2% | 12.8% | 15.9% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 4.6% | 7.1% | 3.6% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 10.0% | 8.4% | 10.4% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 8.4% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 2.7% |
| Ryan Davidson | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.6% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 13.6% | 17.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.