← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+6.56vs Predicted
-
2Yale University4.55+3.51vs Predicted
-
3Stanford University3.90+4.97vs Predicted
-
4University of Southern California2.93+7.63vs Predicted
-
5University of Michigan2.97+6.52vs Predicted
-
6Georgetown University4.36+0.04vs Predicted
-
7Roger Williams University3.95+0.59vs Predicted
-
8College of Charleston3.73+0.43vs Predicted
-
9Dartmouth College4.05-1.87vs Predicted
-
10U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+2.49vs Predicted
-
11University of Virginia3.01+0.55vs Predicted
-
12SUNY Maritime College3.05-0.32vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Naval Academy3.67-4.41vs Predicted
-
14Connecticut College2.59-1.27vs Predicted
-
15Old Dominion University3.82-6.98vs Predicted
-
16Washington College2.84-3.79vs Predicted
-
17George Washington University3.49-7.32vs Predicted
-
18University of Pennsylvania3.16-7.33vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
7.56St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
-
5.51Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
-
7.97Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
-
11.63University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
-
11.52University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
-
6.04Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
-
7.59Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
8.43College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
-
7.13Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
-
12.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
-
11.55University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
-
11.68SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
-
8.59U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
12.73Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
-
8.02Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
12.21Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
-
9.68George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
-
10.67University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 7.8% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Graham Landy | 10.8% | 12.2% | 11.3% | 12.2% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% |
| Matthew Hecht | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 10.2% |
| Alex Ramos | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 9.9% |
| Nevin Snow | 11.9% | 10.4% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 7.9% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Davidson | 5.7% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| Matthew Wefer | 7.4% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| Bradley Milliken | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.6% | 14.5% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.8% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.9% | 9.4% |
| Nick Valente | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.7% |
| Michael Grove | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 13.0% | 19.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.7% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 11.1% | 13.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.