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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
5.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1SUNY Maritime College3.05+10.45vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.95+5.76vs Predicted
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3University of Michigan2.97+8.85vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.67+4.63vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.16+5.72vs Predicted
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6Connecticut College2.59+7.06vs Predicted
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7College of Charleston3.73+1.47vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University3.82+0.06vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.55-3.72vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.93+2.03vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-3.60vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University4.36-5.69vs Predicted
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13George Washington University3.49-3.64vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.90-6.46vs Predicted
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15Dartmouth College4.05-7.87vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia3.01-4.45vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.84-4.71vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81-5.88vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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11.45SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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7.76Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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11.85University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
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8.63U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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10.72University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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13.06Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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8.47College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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8.06Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.28Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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12.03University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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7.4St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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6.31Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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9.36George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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7.54Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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7.13Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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11.55University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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12.29Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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12.12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Valente | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 9.1% | 10.4% | 8.5% |
| William Macdonald | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.0% | 0.5% |
| Alex Ramos | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 11.0% | 10.3% | 9.6% |
| Michael Grove | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.4% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 10.3% | 9.0% | 12.8% | 20.1% |
| Ryan Davidson | 6.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% |
| Esteban Forrer | 5.9% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Graham Landy | 13.9% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 10.9% | 9.8% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 10.6% | 10.2% | 11.5% |
| Fletcher Sims | 8.5% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 0.3% |
| Nevin Snow | 10.8% | 11.1% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.7% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 8.5% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 0.7% | 0.6% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Christopher Stessing | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 9.1% | 8.7% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.5% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 12.4% |
| Bradley Milliken | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 12.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.