← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.67+7.94vs Predicted
-
2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+5.44vs Predicted
-
3Yale University4.55+2.47vs Predicted
-
4SUNY Maritime College3.05+7.16vs Predicted
-
5Stanford University3.90+2.73vs Predicted
-
6George Washington University3.49+3.50vs Predicted
-
7Old Dominion University3.82+1.12vs Predicted
-
8Georgetown University4.36-2.01vs Predicted
-
9Dartmouth College4.05-1.90vs Predicted
-
10College of Charleston3.73-1.23vs Predicted
-
11Connecticut College2.59+2.15vs Predicted
-
12U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+0.62vs Predicted
-
13University of Michigan2.97-1.48vs Predicted
-
14University of Virginia3.01-2.84vs Predicted
-
15Roger Williams University3.95-7.50vs Predicted
-
16University of Southern California2.93-4.09vs Predicted
-
17Washington College2.84-4.77vs Predicted
-
18University of Pennsylvania3.16-7.32vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.94U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
-
7.44St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
-
5.47Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
-
11.16SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
-
7.73Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
-
9.5George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
-
8.12Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
5.99Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
-
7.1Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
-
8.77College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
-
13.15Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
-
12.62U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
-
11.52University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
-
11.16University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
-
7.5Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
-
11.91University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
-
12.23Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
-
10.68University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Grove | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 2.9% | 1.8% |
| Fletcher Sims | 6.9% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Graham Landy | 12.6% | 11.4% | 12.0% | 11.0% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Valente | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.0% |
| Mateo Vargas | 7.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 0.8% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 3.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.3% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 11.3% | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 7.9% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Ryan Davidson | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.5% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 14.1% | 20.3% |
| Bradley Milliken | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 10.0% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 15.5% |
| Alex Ramos | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 9.2% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.6% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 7.8% |
| William Macdonald | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Hecht | 2.7% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 11.4% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 11.2% | 11.6% | 12.6% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 5.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.