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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.55+4.55vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+5.41vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College3.05+8.55vs Predicted
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4Dartmouth College4.05+3.06vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania3.16+5.71vs Predicted
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6University of Virginia3.01+5.50vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.82+1.09vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University4.36-2.05vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.33vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California2.93+2.01vs Predicted
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11Roger Williams University3.95-3.28vs Predicted
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12George Washington University3.49-2.15vs Predicted
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13Connecticut College2.59-0.11vs Predicted
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14Stanford University3.90-6.51vs Predicted
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15College of Charleston3.73-6.58vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan2.97-4.27vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.84-4.70vs Predicted
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18U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81-5.90vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.55Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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7.41St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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11.55SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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7.06Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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10.71University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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11.5University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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8.09Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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5.95Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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12.01University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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7.72Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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9.85George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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12.89Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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7.49Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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8.42College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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11.73University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
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12.3Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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12.1U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Landy | 12.7% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 7.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Fletcher Sims | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Nick Valente | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 10.6% | 8.0% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.1% | 8.4% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.8% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 6.5% |
| Christopher Stessing | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 9.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% |
| Nevin Snow | 11.5% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Michael Grove | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.1% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 6.7% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 11.3% | 11.4% |
| William Macdonald | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 4.5% | 8.2% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 3.2% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.3% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 9.4% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 19.3% |
| Mateo Vargas | 7.9% | 7.5% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Ryan Davidson | 5.9% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.2% |
| Alex Ramos | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 11.4% | 9.7% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 11.9% | 13.7% |
| Bradley Milliken | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 9.7% | 10.4% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.