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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.55+4.58vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.36+4.17vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.67+5.95vs Predicted
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4Stanford University3.90+3.72vs Predicted
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5College of Charleston3.73+3.45vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+1.27vs Predicted
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7Connecticut College2.59+6.02vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California2.93+3.70vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University3.95-1.49vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College4.05-2.61vs Predicted
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11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+1.36vs Predicted
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12George Washington University3.49-2.18vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.05-1.84vs Predicted
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14University of Virginia3.01-2.82vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.82-6.95vs Predicted
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16University of Michigan2.97-4.29vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.99vs Predicted
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18Washington College2.84-6.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.58Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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6.17Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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8.95U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.72Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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8.45College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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7.27St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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13.02Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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11.7University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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7.51Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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7.39Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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12.36U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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9.82George Washington University3.490.0%1st Place
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11.16SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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11.18University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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8.05Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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11.71University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
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11.01University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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11.97Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Landy | 12.8% | 12.3% | 11.1% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Michael Grove | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 4.4% | 1.7% | 1.7% |
| Mateo Vargas | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| Ryan Davidson | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 5.2% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| Fletcher Sims | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 12.4% | 12.2% | 20.0% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.5% | 1.8% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 10.3% | 10.3% | 9.5% |
| William Macdonald | 6.6% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 8.4% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Milliken | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 4.4% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 14.6% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.1% |
| Nick Valente | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 7.6% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 9.7% | 8.5% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 0.7% |
| Alex Ramos | 2.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 10.6% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.9% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.3% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 10.3% | 12.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.