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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Yale University4.55+4.60vs Predicted
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2College of Charleston3.73+6.75vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University4.36+3.12vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College3.05+7.14vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.05+2.17vs Predicted
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6Roger Williams University3.95+1.55vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy3.67+1.71vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03-0.83vs Predicted
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9University of Michigan2.97+2.66vs Predicted
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10George Washington University3.49-0.30vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.90-3.12vs Predicted
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12University of Southern California2.93+0.15vs Predicted
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13University of Virginia3.01-1.67vs Predicted
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14U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81-2.10vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.84-2.90vs Predicted
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16Connecticut College2.59-2.79vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania3.16-5.99vs Predicted
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18Old Dominion University3.82-10.16vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.6Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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8.75College of Charleston3.730.0%1st Place
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6.12Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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11.14SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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7.17Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.55Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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8.71U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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7.17St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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11.66University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
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9.7George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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7.88Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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12.15University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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11.33University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.9U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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12.1Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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13.21Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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11.01University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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7.84Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Landy | 12.1% | 13.8% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Ryan Davidson | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Nevin Snow | 11.1% | 9.3% | 9.9% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Nick Valente | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 9.4% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.5% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| William Macdonald | 7.7% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.8% |
| Michael Grove | 5.2% | 7.2% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 1.6% |
| Fletcher Sims | 8.5% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Alex Ramos | 2.9% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 8.6% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.1% |
| Mateo Vargas | 7.1% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 5.0% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% |
| Matthew Hecht | 2.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 11.6% | 13.1% |
| Christopher Stessing | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 8.7% |
| Bradley Milliken | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 11.3% | 11.3% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.3% | 2.3% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 12.3% | 12.1% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.1% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 21.4% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 6.1% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.4% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.