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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+6.46vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University4.36+4.16vs Predicted
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3Yale University4.55+2.50vs Predicted
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4Roger Williams University3.95+3.53vs Predicted
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5U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+7.11vs Predicted
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6University of Michigan2.97+5.68vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University3.82+1.16vs Predicted
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8Connecticut College2.59+4.92vs Predicted
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9University of Virginia3.01+2.51vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania3.16+1.08vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.90-3.04vs Predicted
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12College of Charleston3.73-3.15vs Predicted
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13George Washington University3.49-3.61vs Predicted
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14Washington College2.84-2.21vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College3.05-3.74vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy3.67-7.21vs Predicted
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17University of Southern California2.93-5.10vs Predicted
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18Dartmouth College4.05-11.05vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.46St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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6.16Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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5.5Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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7.53Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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12.11U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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11.68University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
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8.16Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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12.92Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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11.51University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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11.08University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
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7.96Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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8.85College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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9.39George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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11.79Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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11.26SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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8.79U. S. Naval Academy3.670.1%1st Place
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11.9University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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6.95Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fletcher Sims | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 8.8% | 10.5% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Graham Landy | 12.3% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| William Macdonald | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 2.5% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 10.7% | 14.0% |
| Alex Ramos | 3.1% | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 8.7% | 7.5% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.7% | 10.7% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 4.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.5% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 2.1% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.6% | 12.0% | 20.7% |
| Christopher Stessing | 2.9% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.1% | 7.8% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 6.4% |
| Mateo Vargas | 7.1% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 1.2% |
| Ryan Davidson | 6.1% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.2% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 2.4% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.9% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 9.4% | 9.4% | 12.1% |
| Nick Valente | 2.9% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 8.3% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 8.4% |
| Michael Grove | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 1.8% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 12.9% | 9.4% |
| Matthew Wefer | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 0.6% | 0.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.