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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University3.95+6.85vs Predicted
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2Yale University4.55+3.48vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.81+9.52vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University4.36+1.98vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College4.05+2.11vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland4.03+1.23vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan2.97+4.58vs Predicted
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8College of Charleston3.73+0.37vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy3.67-0.36vs Predicted
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10George Washington University3.49-0.24vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University3.82-2.79vs Predicted
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12Stanford University3.90-3.86vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College3.05-1.80vs Predicted
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14University of Southern California2.93-2.54vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.59-1.97vs Predicted
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16University of Virginia3.01-4.46vs Predicted
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17Washington College2.84-4.72vs Predicted
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18University of Pennsylvania3.16-7.36vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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7.85Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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5.48Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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12.52U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.810.0%1st Place
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5.98Georgetown University4.360.1%1st Place
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7.11Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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7.23St. Mary's College of Maryland4.030.1%1st Place
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11.58University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
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8.37College of Charleston3.730.1%1st Place
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8.64U. S. Naval Academy3.670.0%1st Place
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9.76George Washington University3.490.1%1st Place
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8.21Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.14Stanford University3.900.1%1st Place
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11.2SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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11.46University of Southern California2.930.0%1st Place
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13.03Connecticut College2.590.0%1st Place
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11.54University of Virginia3.010.0%1st Place
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12.28Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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10.64University of Pennsylvania3.160.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Macdonald | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Graham Landy | 11.0% | 11.4% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 1.3% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Bradley Milliken | 2.1% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 10.6% | 12.6% | 14.0% |
| Nevin Snow | 11.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Wefer | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.3% |
| Fletcher Sims | 7.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
| Alex Ramos | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.6% | 8.4% |
| Ryan Davidson | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.9% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Michael Grove | 4.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% |
| Brendan Shanahan | 5.3% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.5% |
| Mateo Vargas | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 2.8% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Nick Valente | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 8.2% |
| Matthew Hecht | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 9.9% | 9.5% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 1.7% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 13.2% | 19.5% |
| Christopher Stessing | 2.2% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 10.3% |
| Ryan Bailey | 3.1% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 12.5% | 14.0% |
| Jack Swikart | 3.9% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.