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📊 Prediction Accuracy
29.4%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
17
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Vermont2.86+5.29vs Predicted
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2Old Dominion University4.01+1.36vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College2.26+5.40vs Predicted
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4Hampton University1.84+5.87vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University3.26+0.14vs Predicted
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6Drexel University0.70+7.54vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.23+1.52vs Predicted
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8Princeton University0.21+6.34vs Predicted
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9Cornell University1.60+1.83vs Predicted
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10William and Mary1.27+1.62vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.11-5.20vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.85-2.15vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.30-7.78vs Predicted
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14Christopher Newport University1.97-4.44vs Predicted
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15U. S. Naval Academy3.38-10.02vs Predicted
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16University of Maryland0.85-2.93vs Predicted
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17U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.98-4.37vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.29University of Vermont2.860.1%1st Place
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3.36Old Dominion University4.010.2%1st Place
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8.4SUNY Maritime College2.260.0%1st Place
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9.87Hampton University1.840.0%1st Place
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5.14Georgetown University3.260.1%1st Place
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13.54Drexel University0.700.0%1st Place
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8.52George Washington University2.230.0%1st Place
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14.34Princeton University0.210.0%1st Place
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10.83Cornell University1.600.0%1st Place
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11.62William and Mary1.270.0%1st Place
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5.8St. Mary's College of Maryland3.110.1%1st Place
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9.85Fordham University1.850.0%1st Place
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5.22U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.300.1%1st Place
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9.56Christopher Newport University1.970.0%1st Place
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4.98U. S. Naval Academy3.380.1%1st Place
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13.07University of Maryland0.850.0%1st Place
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12.63U. S. Merchant Marine Academy0.980.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandra Arntsen | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dillon Paiva | 22.8% | 21.1% | 16.8% | 12.6% | 9.9% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Scott Lubliner | 4.3% | 3.7% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 9.5% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% |
| Andrew Shoemaker | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| Andrew Mason | 12.6% | 11.2% | 12.9% | 10.6% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jennifer Mislinski | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 13.2% | 18.8% | 20.6% |
| Meredith Carroll | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.2% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Anthony Pappenfus | 0.5% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 19.0% | 37.6% |
| Hillary Paulsen | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 10.4% | 9.5% | 9.8% | 9.6% | 7.7% | 2.6% |
| Jonathan Conway | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 10.8% | 7.9% | 12.0% | 11.4% | 9.1% | 6.9% |
| Wick Dudley | 9.2% | 10.2% | 9.9% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| John O'Riordan | 2.0% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 7.8% | 9.1% | 7.9% | 8.4% | 10.1% | 9.1% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 1.7% |
| Krysta Rohde | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Maxwell Plarr | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 9.3% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Taylor Vann | 13.2% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 11.7% | 8.4% | 10.5% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jun Yu Huang | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 9.0% | 10.1% | 16.7% | 15.6% | 15.3% |
| Alex Wood | 0.9% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 12.0% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 12.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.