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📊 Prediction Accuracy
40.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.3
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.78+8.74vs Predicted
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2U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.08+6.30vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston3.65+7.45vs Predicted
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4Boston College4.12+4.17vs Predicted
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5Yale University4.55+1.31vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.63+4.49vs Predicted
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7University of Michigan2.97+6.85vs Predicted
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8Harvard University3.79+1.50vs Predicted
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9Tufts University4.08-0.77vs Predicted
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10Roger Williams University3.95-1.10vs Predicted
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11Brown University3.69-0.76vs Predicted
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12University of Rhode Island3.05+1.38vs Predicted
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13University of Wisconsin3.04+0.55vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College4.05-5.63vs Predicted
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15Washington College2.84-1.02vs Predicted
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16Old Dominion University3.70-5.95vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College3.05-4.07vs Predicted
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18Stanford University3.70-7.79vs Predicted
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19St. Mary's College of Maryland3.34-7.26vs Predicted
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20Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.42-8.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.74Connecticut College3.780.1%1st Place
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8.3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.080.1%1st Place
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10.45College of Charleston3.650.1%1st Place
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8.17Boston College4.120.1%1st Place
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6.31Yale University4.550.1%1st Place
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10.49University of Vermont3.630.0%1st Place
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13.85University of Michigan2.970.0%1st Place
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9.5Harvard University3.790.1%1st Place
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8.23Tufts University4.080.1%1st Place
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8.9Roger Williams University3.950.1%1st Place
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10.24Brown University3.690.1%1st Place
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13.38University of Rhode Island3.050.0%1st Place
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13.55University of Wisconsin3.040.0%1st Place
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8.37Dartmouth College4.050.1%1st Place
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13.98Washington College2.840.0%1st Place
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10.05Old Dominion University3.700.1%1st Place
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12.93SUNY Maritime College3.050.0%1st Place
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10.21Stanford University3.700.0%1st Place
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11.74St. Mary's College of Maryland3.340.0%1st Place
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11.59Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.420.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Martland | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.7% |
| Avery Fanning | 8.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Jake Reynolds | 5.1% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 3.0% |
| Raul Rios | 8.0% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Graham Landy | 11.9% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Zonnenberg | 3.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.8% |
| Alex Ramos | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 9.8% | 11.7% | 13.6% |
| Andrew Mollerus | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 1.6% |
| William Haeger | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.5% |
| William Macdonald | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.4% |
| Judge Ryan | 5.1% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.1% |
| Caleb Armstrong | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 8.1% | 9.3% | 10.4% | 13.0% |
| Connor Trepton | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 14.3% |
| Matthew Wefer | 6.7% | 6.6% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| Ryan Bailey | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 12.9% | 18.0% |
| Brady Stagg | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 2.6% |
| Nick Valente | 2.9% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 9.3% | 9.1% | 10.4% |
| Antoine Screve | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.4% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| Nicholas Clemence | 4.0% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 5.3% |
| David Alfonso | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.