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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University4.78+5.76vs Predicted
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2Harvard University4.52+5.78vs Predicted
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3U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63+4.27vs Predicted
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4Washington College4.25+4.53vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.42+2.97vs Predicted
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6Boston College4.89+0.16vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University3.92+2.95vs Predicted
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8University of Miami3.99+1.56vs Predicted
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9Dartmouth College3.58+2.28vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston4.76-3.15vs Predicted
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11University of Vermont3.62+0.11vs Predicted
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12Tufts University3.70-0.85vs Predicted
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13Yale University2.77+0.87vs Predicted
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14Brown University4.49-6.57vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.67-0.66vs Predicted
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16Princeton University2.30-0.65vs Predicted
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17U. S. Naval Academy4.09-7.59vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83-11.77vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.76Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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7.78Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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7.27U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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8.53Washington College4.250.1%1st Place
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7.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.420.1%1st Place
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6.16Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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9.95Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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9.56University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
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11.28Dartmouth College3.580.0%1st Place
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6.85College of Charleston4.760.1%1st Place
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11.11University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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11.15Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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13.87Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
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7.43Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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14.34Connecticut College2.670.0%1st Place
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15.35Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
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9.41U. S. Naval Academy4.090.0%1st Place
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6.23St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cy Thompson | 9.1% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.3% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Samuel Ingham | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Blouin | 6.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| John Darby | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.4% |
| Tyler Sinks | 10.0% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 10.7% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 8.5% | 8.4% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.4% | 3.7% | 1.5% |
| Nicholas Voss | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Edward Glackin | 3.0% | 1.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 10.9% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 3.7% |
| Juan Maegli | 10.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 7.9% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 11.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% |
| Massimo Soriano | 2.7% | 2.7% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 9.5% | 3.9% |
| Andrew Kurzrok | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 12.8% | 18.9% | 19.4% |
| Fred Strammer | 7.2% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Max Rollins | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 3.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 9.1% | 10.5% | 20.4% | 24.3% |
| Mary Gamber | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 1.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 5.5% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 18.7% | 38.9% |
| Clark Hayes | 4.7% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| Michael Menninger | 10.5% | 10.3% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.