← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.7
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Tufts University3.73+7.29vs Predicted
-
2Harvard University3.49+7.42vs Predicted
-
3U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+5.89vs Predicted
-
4College of Charleston3.62+4.85vs Predicted
-
5Brown University3.64+3.74vs Predicted
-
6Dartmouth College3.49+3.49vs Predicted
-
7St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+0.86vs Predicted
-
8Old Dominion University3.82-0.24vs Predicted
-
9Connecticut College3.55+0.01vs Predicted
-
10Washington College2.45+3.86vs Predicted
-
11Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-0.51vs Predicted
-
12Yale University4.08-4.97vs Predicted
-
13Boston College3.92-5.12vs Predicted
-
14Roger Williams University3.47-4.57vs Predicted
-
15University of Rhode Island2.95-3.30vs Predicted
-
16SUNY Maritime College2.24-1.46vs Predicted
-
17Stanford University3.44-7.52vs Predicted
-
18University of Vermont2.55-4.41vs Predicted
-
19University of Wisconsin2.37-4.95vs Predicted
-
20University of Michigan-0.66-0.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
8.29Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
-
9.42Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
-
8.89U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
-
8.85College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
-
8.74Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
-
9.49Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
-
7.86St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
-
7.76Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
9.01Connecticut College3.550.0%1st Place
-
13.86Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
-
10.49Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.1%1st Place
-
7.03Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
-
7.88Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
-
9.43Roger Williams University3.470.0%1st Place
-
11.7University of Rhode Island2.950.0%1st Place
-
14.54SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
-
9.48Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
-
13.59University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
-
14.05University of Wisconsin2.370.0%1st Place
-
19.62University of Michigan-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% |
| Brian Drumm | 6.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 6.8% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.4% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| IG Schottlaender | 4.8% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.0% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 8.7% | 11.8% | 15.1% | 14.1% | 2.1% |
| David Larson | 5.1% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 3.1% | 0.1% |
| Ian Barrows | 9.6% | 8.9% | 9.2% | 7.9% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| William Bailey | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 7.9% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Connor Needham | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 3.3% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 0.5% |
| Matthew Schoene | 1.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 7.5% | 9.9% | 14.1% | 24.7% | 2.3% |
| Axel Sly | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 5.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Steven Pelissier | 1.9% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 11.1% | 15.6% | 1.4% |
| John Kinzel | 2.3% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 9.9% | 14.7% | 19.4% | 1.6% |
| James Hewitt | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 3.1% | 91.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.