← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
30.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.5
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1Connecticut College3.55+8.12vs Predicted
-
2University of Vermont2.55+11.45vs Predicted
-
3Brown University3.64+5.87vs Predicted
-
4Boston College3.92+3.55vs Predicted
-
5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+3.70vs Predicted
-
6St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91+1.64vs Predicted
-
7College of Charleston3.62+2.16vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College2.24+6.43vs Predicted
-
9Old Dominion University3.82-1.19vs Predicted
-
10Roger Williams University3.47-0.49vs Predicted
-
11University of Rhode Island2.95+0.79vs Predicted
-
12Harvard University3.49-2.35vs Predicted
-
13Washington College2.45+1.14vs Predicted
-
14Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27-3.64vs Predicted
-
15Tufts University3.73-6.61vs Predicted
-
16Stanford University3.44-6.42vs Predicted
-
17Yale University4.08-10.27vs Predicted
-
18Dartmouth College3.49-8.51vs Predicted
-
19University of Wisconsin2.37-4.99vs Predicted
-
20University of Michigan-0.66-0.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
9.12Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
-
13.45University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
-
8.87Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
-
7.55Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
-
8.7U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
-
7.64St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
-
9.16College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
-
14.43SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
-
7.81Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
-
9.51Roger Williams University3.470.0%1st Place
-
11.79University of Rhode Island2.950.0%1st Place
-
9.65Harvard University3.490.1%1st Place
-
14.14Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
-
10.36Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.0%1st Place
-
8.39Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
-
9.58Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
-
6.73Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
-
9.49Dartmouth College3.490.0%1st Place
-
14.01University of Wisconsin2.370.0%1st Place
-
19.61University of Michigan-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IG Schottlaender | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.2% | 3.2% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 8.1% | 10.4% | 12.7% | 15.4% | 0.9% |
| Lucas Adams | 6.5% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% |
| William Bailey | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Nikole Barnes | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.7% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Matthew Schoene | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 1.3% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.9% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 23.0% | 2.4% |
| Esteban Forrer | 6.5% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Connor Needham | 4.9% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.4% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 6.0% | 0.5% |
| Brian Drumm | 5.7% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.8% | 0.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 9.7% | 15.6% | 18.3% | 2.5% |
| David Larson | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 2.7% | 0.3% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 7.2% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Axel Sly | 5.4% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.2% |
| Ian Barrows | 9.8% | 10.0% | 9.0% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 4.4% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| John Kinzel | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 9.4% | 15.0% | 19.5% | 1.8% |
| James Hewitt | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 3.5% | 90.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.