← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+5.65vs Predicted
-
2Washington College4.25+6.80vs Predicted
-
3Boston College4.89+3.32vs Predicted
-
4Roger Williams University4.78+2.47vs Predicted
-
5University of Miami3.99+4.54vs Predicted
-
6Brown University4.49+1.63vs Predicted
-
7Salve Regina University3.92+3.02vs Predicted
-
8College of Charleston4.76-1.46vs Predicted
-
9U. S. Naval Academy4.09+0.20vs Predicted
-
10University of Vermont3.62+1.37vs Predicted
-
11Harvard University4.52-3.29vs Predicted
-
12Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.42-3.70vs Predicted
-
13U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-6.02vs Predicted
-
14Tufts University3.70-3.48vs Predicted
-
15Dartmouth College3.58-3.81vs Predicted
-
16Connecticut College2.67-1.58vs Predicted
-
17Yale University2.77-2.84vs Predicted
-
18Princeton University2.30-2.83vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
6.65St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
-
8.8Washington College4.250.0%1st Place
-
6.32Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
-
6.47Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
-
9.54University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
-
7.63Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
-
10.02Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
-
6.54College of Charleston4.760.1%1st Place
-
9.2U. S. Naval Academy4.090.0%1st Place
-
11.37University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
-
7.71Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
-
8.3Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.420.1%1st Place
-
6.98U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
-
10.52Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
-
11.19Dartmouth College3.580.0%1st Place
-
14.42Connecticut College2.670.0%1st Place
-
14.16Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
-
15.17Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 8.9% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Joseph Blouin | 4.2% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Tyler Sinks | 9.6% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.6% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cy Thompson | 10.4% | 10.8% | 8.4% | 9.4% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 8.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Voss | 4.7% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.2% |
| Fred Strammer | 7.3% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 4.4% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 3.6% | 2.6% |
| Juan Maegli | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Clark Hayes | 4.7% | 4.4% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 10.1% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 9.1% | 4.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 7.9% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% |
| John Darby | 6.2% | 7.5% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.6% |
| Samuel Ingham | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 8.0% | 8.1% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 3.0% |
| Edward Glackin | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 3.3% |
| Max Rollins | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 12.3% | 21.6% | 23.2% |
| Andrew Kurzrok | 1.7% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 7.9% | 14.5% | 18.6% | 22.1% |
| Mary Gamber | 1.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 6.6% | 13.0% | 18.0% | 37.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.