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📊 Prediction Accuracy
35.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
20
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Connecticut College3.55+8.10vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University3.47+7.46vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.49+6.56vs Predicted
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4College of Charleston3.62+4.86vs Predicted
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5Brown University3.64+3.73vs Predicted
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6Harvard University3.49+3.47vs Predicted
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7Boston College3.92+0.80vs Predicted
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8U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.65+0.50vs Predicted
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9Yale University4.08-2.17vs Predicted
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10Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.27+0.45vs Predicted
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11Stanford University3.44-1.30vs Predicted
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12University of Vermont2.55+1.65vs Predicted
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13University of Rhode Island2.95-0.88vs Predicted
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14St. Mary's College of Maryland3.91-6.52vs Predicted
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15Old Dominion University3.82-7.04vs Predicted
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16Tufts University3.73-7.70vs Predicted
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17SUNY Maritime College2.24-2.51vs Predicted
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18Washington College2.45-4.12vs Predicted
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19University of Wisconsin2.37-4.95vs Predicted
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20University of Michigan-0.66-0.39vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.1Connecticut College3.550.1%1st Place
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9.46Roger Williams University3.470.1%1st Place
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9.56Dartmouth College3.490.1%1st Place
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8.86College of Charleston3.620.1%1st Place
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8.73Brown University3.640.1%1st Place
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9.47Harvard University3.490.0%1st Place
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7.8Boston College3.920.1%1st Place
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8.5U. S. Coast Guard Academy3.650.1%1st Place
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6.83Yale University4.080.1%1st Place
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10.45Massachusetts Institute of Technology3.270.0%1st Place
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9.7Stanford University3.440.1%1st Place
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13.65University of Vermont2.550.0%1st Place
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12.12University of Rhode Island2.950.0%1st Place
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7.48St. Mary's College of Maryland3.910.1%1st Place
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7.96Old Dominion University3.820.1%1st Place
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8.3Tufts University3.730.1%1st Place
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14.49SUNY Maritime College2.240.0%1st Place
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13.88Washington College2.450.0%1st Place
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14.05University of Wisconsin2.370.0%1st Place
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19.61University of Michigan-0.660.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IG Schottlaender | 5.0% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Connor Needham | 6.7% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Scott Houck | 5.6% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.0% |
| Nick Johnstone | 6.3% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Adams | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Brian Drumm | 4.4% | 7.3% | 4.7% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 3.7% | 5.2% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| William Bailey | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Nikole Barnes | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Ian Barrows | 8.6% | 9.9% | 9.9% | 8.5% | 7.5% | 8.4% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| David Larson | 3.9% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 0.2% |
| Axel Sly | 5.3% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.1% |
| Steven Pelissier | 2.1% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 10.4% | 15.2% | 14.8% | 1.1% |
| Matthew Coughlin | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.1% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 8.7% | 9.4% | 7.1% | 0.9% |
| Alexander Curtiss | 8.8% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Esteban Forrer | 7.9% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 8.4% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Alejandro Ruiz-Ramon | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Matthew Schoene | 2.1% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 21.3% | 3.1% |
| Eric Siegel | 2.0% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 10.1% | 12.4% | 17.8% | 1.6% |
| John Kinzel | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 14.1% | 19.6% | 1.6% |
| James Hewitt | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 90.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.