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📊 Prediction Accuracy
19.0%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+4.80vs Predicted
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2University of California at San Diego0.31+10.30vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+3.06vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.95-0.41vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California1.52+2.82vs Predicted
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6University of California at Santa Barbara1.46+2.18vs Predicted
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7University of Southern California1.12+2.67vs Predicted
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8University of California at Los Angeles-0.82+7.79vs Predicted
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9University of Southern California2.47-4.26vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego1.81-3.11vs Predicted
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11California State University Monterey Bay0.84-0.56vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.84-1.56vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.11+3.74vs Predicted
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14University of California at Berkeley0.92-3.64vs Predicted
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15University of California at Los Angeles0.58-3.56vs Predicted
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16University of California at Berkeley0.87-5.75vs Predicted
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17University of California at Davis0.42-5.07vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley1.48-10.14vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-1.25vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-0.83-4.11vs Predicted
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21University of California at Irvine-1.02-4.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.8University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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12.3University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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6.06University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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3.59University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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7.82University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
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8.18University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.0%1st Place
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9.67University of Southern California1.120.0%1st Place
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15.79University of California at Los Angeles-0.820.0%1st Place
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4.74University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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6.89University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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10.44California State University Monterey Bay0.840.0%1st Place
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10.44California State University Monterey Bay0.840.0%1st Place
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16.74Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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10.36University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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11.44University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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10.25University of California at Berkeley0.870.0%1st Place
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11.93University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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7.86University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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17.75University of California at Los Angeles-1.610.0%1st Place
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15.89Arizona State University-0.830.0%1st Place
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16.48University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Stokes | 9.9% | 11.5% | 11.4% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 9.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 2.0% | 1.9% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 8.8% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 5.8% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 10.3% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 9.4% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 23.4% | 18.8% | 15.1% | 12.8% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 4.9% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 4.5% | 6.4% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 9.4% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.8% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor DuPont | 3.2% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kevin Chao | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 14.6% | 11.9% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 14.9% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 12.1% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 6.2% | 7.6% | 9.0% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.4% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Smith | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Parker Smith | 3.4% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 2.6% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 8.7% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 16.4% | 20.3% | 20.8% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 2.3% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 9.1% | 9.7% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.3% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 4.2% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 11.5% | 7.8% | 5.1% | 1.6% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonas Sota | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.8% | 9.7% | 13.6% | 19.0% | 38.2% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Olehausen | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 13.1% | 16.2% | 18.3% | 10.6% | 0.0% |
| Ellen Suder | 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 8.7% | 12.9% | 17.1% | 19.7% | 16.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.