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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+4.73vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+1.55vs Predicted
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3University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+3.02vs Predicted
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4University of California at Berkeley0.92+6.08vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.47-0.27vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.87+4.32vs Predicted
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7University of California at Davis0.42+5.15vs Predicted
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8University of Southern California1.52-0.35vs Predicted
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9University of California at Santa Barbara1.46-1.05vs Predicted
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10University of California at San Diego0.31+2.23vs Predicted
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11University of California at Berkeley1.48-3.03vs Predicted
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12California State University Monterey Bay0.84-1.46vs Predicted
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13University of Southern California1.12-3.47vs Predicted
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14University of California at Irvine-1.02+2.27vs Predicted
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15California State University Monterey Bay0.84-4.46vs Predicted
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16University of California at San Diego1.81-9.22vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles0.58-5.82vs Predicted
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18University of California at Los Angeles-1.57-0.55vs Predicted
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19Arizona State University-0.83-3.20vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-1.11-3.54vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-3.38vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.73University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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3.55University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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6.02University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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10.08University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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4.73University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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10.32University of California at Berkeley0.870.0%1st Place
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12.15University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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7.65University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
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7.95University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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12.23University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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7.97University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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10.54California State University Monterey Bay0.840.0%1st Place
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9.53University of Southern California1.120.0%1st Place
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16.27University of California at Irvine-1.020.0%1st Place
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10.54California State University Monterey Bay0.840.0%1st Place
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6.78University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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11.18University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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17.45University of California at Los Angeles-1.570.0%1st Place
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15.8Arizona State University-0.830.0%1st Place
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16.46Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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17.62University of California at Los Angeles-1.610.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Stokes | 10.3% | 10.8% | 10.6% | 10.5% | 10.1% | 11.2% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Stephen Long | 23.6% | 17.1% | 18.0% | 14.0% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 9.5% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 7.9% | 10.6% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 3.2% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 13.7% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 13.1% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 7.4% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 2.0% | 4.1% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.7% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 4.8% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 5.1% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 1.4% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 7.9% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.3% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.6% | 1.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Parker Smith | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Taylor DuPont | 3.0% | 4.5% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 5.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ellen Suder | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 14.7% | 16.8% | 16.9% | 13.6% | 0.0% |
| Parker Smith | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.3% | 3.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 10.0% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 10.4% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 9.0% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 8.4% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 9.1% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 8.7% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Cross | 0.1% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 3.9% | 6.2% | 11.3% | 15.3% | 22.1% | 28.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Olehausen | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 5.3% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 13.9% | 18.3% | 13.3% | 9.9% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 10.2% | 13.8% | 16.6% | 20.9% | 14.1% | 0.0% |
| Jonas Sota | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.6% | 6.4% | 9.9% | 15.1% | 20.0% | 33.2% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.