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📊 Prediction Accuracy
28.6%
Within 2 Positions
3.8
Avg Position Diff
21
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of California at Santa Barbara2.95+2.53vs Predicted
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2University of California at Santa Barbara2.14+3.60vs Predicted
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3California State University Monterey Bay-0.45+11.54vs Predicted
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4University of California at Santa Barbara2.06+1.95vs Predicted
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5University of Southern California2.47-0.32vs Predicted
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6University of California at Berkeley0.87+4.21vs Predicted
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7University of California at Berkeley0.92+3.14vs Predicted
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8University of California at Santa Barbara1.46-0.26vs Predicted
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9University of California at San Diego0.31+2.91vs Predicted
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10University of Southern California1.52-2.35vs Predicted
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11University of Southern California1.12-1.88vs Predicted
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12University of California at Irvine-0.54+2.88vs Predicted
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13Arizona State University-1.11+3.57vs Predicted
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14University of California at San Diego1.81-7.32vs Predicted
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15University of California at Davis0.42-3.41vs Predicted
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16California State University Monterey Bay-0.45-1.46vs Predicted
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17University of California at Los Angeles0.58-6.01vs Predicted
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18University of California at Berkeley1.48-10.33vs Predicted
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19University of California at Los Angeles-1.61-1.51vs Predicted
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20Arizona State University-0.83-4.41vs Predicted
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21University of California at Los Angeles-1.57-3.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.53University of California at Santa Barbara2.950.2%1st Place
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5.6University of California at Santa Barbara2.140.1%1st Place
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14.54California State University Monterey Bay-0.450.0%1st Place
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5.95University of California at Santa Barbara2.060.1%1st Place
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4.68University of Southern California2.470.1%1st Place
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10.21University of California at Berkeley0.870.0%1st Place
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10.14University of California at Berkeley0.920.0%1st Place
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7.74University of California at Santa Barbara1.460.1%1st Place
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11.91University of California at San Diego0.310.0%1st Place
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7.65University of Southern California1.520.0%1st Place
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9.12University of Southern California1.120.0%1st Place
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14.88University of California at Irvine-0.540.0%1st Place
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16.57Arizona State University-1.110.0%1st Place
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6.68University of California at San Diego1.810.1%1st Place
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11.59University of California at Davis0.420.0%1st Place
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14.54California State University Monterey Bay-0.450.0%1st Place
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10.99University of California at Los Angeles0.580.0%1st Place
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7.67University of California at Berkeley1.480.1%1st Place
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17.49University of California at Los Angeles-1.610.0%1st Place
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15.59Arizona State University-0.830.0%1st Place
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17.47University of California at Los Angeles-1.570.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Long | 23.7% | 19.4% | 16.1% | 12.1% | 9.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Ian Stokes | 10.7% | 10.1% | 10.8% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 9.4% | 8.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Orloff | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Olivia Godfrey | 9.4% | 10.3% | 8.1% | 13.0% | 7.6% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 10.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 3.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Coakley | 14.5% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.6% | 12.5% | 7.9% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Dylan Skeffington | 2.3% | 3.9% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 10.5% | 10.0% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ian Markowitz | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Remy Margerum | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Brett Farrell | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.2% | 10.5% | 12.3% | 9.3% | 6.3% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Kendall Sanson | 4.2% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 9.3% | 7.7% | 7.7% | 9.3% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 3.7% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Taylor DuPont | 4.5% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Daniel Diaz | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 9.9% | 13.4% | 16.5% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 4.7% | 0.0% |
| Conor McGee | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 12.8% | 16.5% | 19.3% | 17.5% | 0.0% |
| Nicolas Delfino | 6.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Murray | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 8.9% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 9.9% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Lauren Orloff | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 11.4% | 13.1% | 14.1% | 8.7% | 4.9% | 0.0% |
| Sarah Wyman | 2.5% | 2.5% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 4.9% | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.5% | 9.4% | 9.7% | 8.2% | 4.4% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jacob Hiew | 6.0% | 4.8% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jonas Sota | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 21.1% | 32.1% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Olehausen | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 4.0% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 11.3% | 13.9% | 16.8% | 14.6% | 8.4% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Cross | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 8.6% | 14.7% | 20.9% | 31.7% | 0.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.