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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
3.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Roger Williams University4.78+5.77vs Predicted
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2Boston College4.89+4.34vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+3.53vs Predicted
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4Brown University4.49+3.56vs Predicted
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5Harvard University4.52+2.53vs Predicted
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6University of Vermont3.62+5.18vs Predicted
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7Salve Regina University3.92+2.94vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.42-0.07vs Predicted
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9U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-2.04vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston4.76-3.11vs Predicted
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11Washington College4.25-2.25vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy4.09-2.43vs Predicted
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13University of Miami3.99-3.46vs Predicted
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14Tufts University3.70-3.53vs Predicted
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15Connecticut College2.67-0.69vs Predicted
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16Dartmouth College3.58-4.64vs Predicted
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17Yale University2.77-2.80vs Predicted
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18Princeton University2.30-2.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.77Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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6.34Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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6.53St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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7.56Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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7.53Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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11.18University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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9.94Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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7.93Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.420.1%1st Place
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6.96U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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6.89College of Charleston4.760.1%1st Place
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8.75Washington College4.250.1%1st Place
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9.57U. S. Naval Academy4.090.0%1st Place
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9.54University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
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10.47Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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14.31Connecticut College2.670.0%1st Place
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11.36Dartmouth College3.580.0%1st Place
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14.2Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
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15.18Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cy Thompson | 9.2% | 8.9% | 9.5% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 7.8% | 4.3% | 6.9% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 8.5% | 9.4% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 8.5% | 9.1% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Michael Menninger | 9.2% | 9.9% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.4% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| Fred Strammer | 8.2% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Alan Palmer | 7.7% | 9.4% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.4% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.1% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 4.4% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 4.1% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 1.7% |
| John Darby | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Samuel Ingham | 8.4% | 9.1% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Juan Maegli | 9.4% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Blouin | 5.6% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Clark Hayes | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 4.5% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Nicholas Voss | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Massimo Soriano | 3.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 4.7% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 5.8% | 3.0% |
| Max Rollins | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 19.9% | 22.8% |
| Edward Glackin | 2.5% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.2% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 9.7% | 9.1% | 4.4% |
| Andrew Kurzrok | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 1.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 10.1% | 13.1% | 20.3% | 21.5% |
| Mary Gamber | 1.4% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.5% | 2.0% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 7.8% | 11.0% | 18.7% | 37.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.