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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+7.84vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.01+3.98vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.52vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+2.64vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.76+0.46vs Predicted
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6Washington College1.66+4.97vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.73+1.69vs Predicted
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8SUNY Maritime College2.51-1.18vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+1.12vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.98-0.61vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.05-2.83vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.44-0.39vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.28-1.73vs Predicted
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14Cornell University1.70-4.79vs Predicted
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15Princeton University1.87-3.56vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.83-2.11vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.12-1.84vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.47-7.18vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.84Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.464.9%1st Place
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5.98U. S. Naval Academy3.0111.5%1st Place
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6.52University of Pennsylvania2.4210.3%1st Place
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6.64St. Mary's College of Maryland2.658.8%1st Place
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5.46Georgetown University2.7613.7%1st Place
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10.97Washington College1.662.5%1st Place
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8.69Webb Institute1.736.1%1st Place
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6.82SUNY Maritime College2.519.1%1st Place
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10.12U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.5%1st Place
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9.39Fordham University1.985.1%1st Place
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8.17George Washington University2.056.2%1st Place
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11.61Old Dominion University1.442.6%1st Place
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11.27Columbia University1.283.5%1st Place
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9.21Cornell University1.704.2%1st Place
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11.44Princeton University1.873.2%1st Place
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13.89Christopher Newport University0.830.8%1st Place
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15.16William and Mary0.120.8%1st Place
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10.82Hampton University1.473.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 4.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| JC Hermus | 11.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.3% | 8.3% | 9.2% | 8.5% | 9.8% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.8% | 9.9% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Jack Reiter | 13.7% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 7.6% | 9.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 4.5% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 3.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Matt Logue | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 10.2% | 6.5% |
| Leopold Brandl | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.6% | 6.5% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.2% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 10.1% | 10.2% | 5.9% |
| Daniel Hodges | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 11.4% | 17.9% | 21.2% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 9.3% | 14.6% | 42.1% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.0% | 8.4% | 4.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.