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📊 Prediction Accuracy
11.1%
Within 2 Positions
4.7
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+9.37vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania2.42+4.63vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.01+2.74vs Predicted
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4Princeton University1.87+7.47vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.44+6.28vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+3.12vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.98+2.47vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.05+0.34vs Predicted
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9Hampton University1.47+2.04vs Predicted
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10Christopher Newport University0.83+3.95vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.70-1.66vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.76-6.57vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College2.51-6.10vs Predicted
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14Webb Institute1.73-5.46vs Predicted
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15Washington College1.66-4.30vs Predicted
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16Columbia University1.28-4.76vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.12-2.03vs Predicted
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18St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-11.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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10.37U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.6%1st Place
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6.63University of Pennsylvania2.428.9%1st Place
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5.74U. S. Naval Academy3.0111.6%1st Place
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11.47Princeton University1.873.2%1st Place
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11.28Old Dominion University1.442.8%1st Place
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9.12Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.464.8%1st Place
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9.47Fordham University1.985.0%1st Place
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8.34George Washington University2.055.3%1st Place
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11.04Hampton University1.472.9%1st Place
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13.95Christopher Newport University0.831.3%1st Place
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9.34Cornell University1.704.6%1st Place
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5.43Georgetown University2.7613.6%1st Place
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6.9SUNY Maritime College2.518.2%1st Place
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8.54Webb Institute1.735.9%1st Place
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10.7Washington College1.663.8%1st Place
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11.24Columbia University1.282.9%1st Place
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14.97William and Mary0.121.2%1st Place
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6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Sawin | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 3.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.9% | 7.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| JC Hermus | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 10.8% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 10.5% | 6.5% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 10.2% | 10.1% | 5.8% |
| Jake Vickers | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 4.2% | 1.1% |
| Matt Logue | 5.3% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 8.3% | 5.2% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.3% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 18.4% | 22.9% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.6% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 1.1% |
| Jack Reiter | 13.6% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.7% | 8.6% | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.8% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 4.3% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 9.2% | 6.3% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 14.7% | 40.6% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.4% | 8.6% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.