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📊 Prediction Accuracy
50.0%
Within 2 Positions
3.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.05+7.22vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.01+3.78vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.71vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.70+5.29vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.76+0.31vs Predicted
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6St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+0.65vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.73+1.68vs Predicted
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8Hampton University1.47+2.97vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46-0.09vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.44+1.47vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.98-1.42vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.51-5.17vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.28-1.77vs Predicted
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14U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-3.87vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.83-1.30vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.66-5.06vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.12-1.85vs Predicted
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18Princeton University1.87-6.54vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.22George Washington University2.056.5%1st Place
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5.78U. S. Naval Academy3.0111.5%1st Place
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6.71University of Pennsylvania2.4210.0%1st Place
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9.29Cornell University1.705.1%1st Place
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5.31Georgetown University2.7613.7%1st Place
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6.65St. Mary's College of Maryland2.659.4%1st Place
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8.68Webb Institute1.735.2%1st Place
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10.97Hampton University1.473.7%1st Place
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8.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.464.8%1st Place
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11.47Old Dominion University1.442.6%1st Place
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9.58Fordham University1.984.0%1st Place
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6.83SUNY Maritime College2.519.7%1st Place
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11.23Columbia University1.282.7%1st Place
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10.13U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.0%1st Place
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13.7Christopher Newport University0.831.4%1st Place
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10.94Washington College1.662.6%1st Place
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15.15William and Mary0.120.7%1st Place
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11.46Princeton University1.872.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Logue | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| JC Hermus | 11.5% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 10.5% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 3.5% | 1.5% |
| Jack Reiter | 13.7% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 11.4% | 10.1% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.4% | 8.2% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.8% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.1% | 4.2% |
| Jake Vickers | 4.8% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.5% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 3.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 7.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 7.1% | 3.8% | 2.0% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.7% | 8.2% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.7% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 5.6% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 2.8% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 10.1% | 17.2% | 22.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 4.2% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.7% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 15.4% | 41.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.1% | 10.2% | 6.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.