← Back to Regatta
📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
-
1U. S. Naval Academy3.01+4.76vs Predicted
-
2Georgetown University2.76+3.28vs Predicted
-
3University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.63vs Predicted
-
4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+2.50vs Predicted
-
5Fordham University1.98+4.62vs Predicted
-
6Princeton University1.87+5.26vs Predicted
-
7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+1.99vs Predicted
-
8SUNY Maritime College2.51-1.20vs Predicted
-
9Washington College1.66+2.05vs Predicted
-
10Webb Institute1.73-1.16vs Predicted
-
11Cornell University1.70-1.77vs Predicted
-
12George Washington University2.05-3.65vs Predicted
-
13Christopher Newport University0.83+0.66vs Predicted
-
14Columbia University1.28-2.49vs Predicted
-
15U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-4.80vs Predicted
-
16Hampton University1.47-5.22vs Predicted
-
17William and Mary0.12-1.92vs Predicted
-
18Old Dominion University1.44-6.53vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
-
5.76U. S. Naval Academy3.0113.0%1st Place
-
5.28Georgetown University2.7614.2%1st Place
-
6.63University of Pennsylvania2.428.9%1st Place
-
6.5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.5%1st Place
-
9.62Fordham University1.983.7%1st Place
-
11.26Princeton University1.872.9%1st Place
-
8.99Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.465.0%1st Place
-
6.8SUNY Maritime College2.518.1%1st Place
-
11.05Washington College1.662.9%1st Place
-
8.84Webb Institute1.735.1%1st Place
-
9.23Cornell University1.705.1%1st Place
-
8.35George Washington University2.055.5%1st Place
-
13.66Christopher Newport University0.831.9%1st Place
-
11.51Columbia University1.283.1%1st Place
-
10.2U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.5%1st Place
-
10.78Hampton University1.472.9%1st Place
-
15.08William and Mary0.120.7%1st Place
-
11.47Old Dominion University1.443.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JC Hermus | 13.0% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 14.2% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.8% | 10.1% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.9% | 8.2% | 10.8% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 8.1% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 3.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 3.7% | 2.3% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 10.2% | 5.2% |
| Jake Vickers | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.1% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 9.0% | 7.3% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.9% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 9.2% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 4.3% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.1% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 5.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Matt Logue | 5.5% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 18.9% | 20.8% |
| Leopold Brandl | 3.1% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 6.4% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 2.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 2.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 13.5% | 42.0% |
| Bridget Groble | 3.0% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 8.1% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 10.7% | 9.7% | 6.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.