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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1University of Pennsylvania2.42+5.62vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.01+3.68vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.76+2.25vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.73+4.46vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+1.41vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College2.51+0.76vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+3.10vs Predicted
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8George Washington University2.05+0.21vs Predicted
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9Columbia University1.28+2.33vs Predicted
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10Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46-1.23vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University0.95+1.94vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.98-2.49vs Predicted
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13Washington College1.66-2.12vs Predicted
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14Hampton University1.47-3.11vs Predicted
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15William and Mary0.12+0.23vs Predicted
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16Cornell University1.70-6.83vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.87-5.77vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.83-4.43vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62University of Pennsylvania2.429.1%1st Place
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5.68U. S. Naval Academy3.0112.5%1st Place
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5.25Georgetown University2.7612.8%1st Place
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8.46Webb Institute1.735.0%1st Place
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6.41St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.2%1st Place
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6.76SUNY Maritime College2.519.4%1st Place
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10.1U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.6%1st Place
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8.21George Washington University2.056.6%1st Place
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11.33Columbia University1.282.6%1st Place
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8.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.465.0%1st Place
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12.94Old Dominion University0.951.8%1st Place
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9.51Fordham University1.984.7%1st Place
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10.88Washington College1.663.2%1st Place
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10.89Hampton University1.473.6%1st Place
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15.23William and Mary0.120.6%1st Place
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9.17Cornell University1.704.6%1st Place
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11.23Princeton University1.873.2%1st Place
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13.57Christopher Newport University0.831.5%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Bruce | 9.1% | 9.8% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| JC Hermus | 12.5% | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Jack Reiter | 12.8% | 12.9% | 13.2% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 9.3% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.6% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.2% | 9.3% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.4% | 8.5% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.6% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 2.5% |
| Matt Logue | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.7% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 5.5% |
| Jake Vickers | 5.0% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 0.9% |
| John Glenn | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 12.2% | 16.8% | 13.5% |
| Porter Kavle | 4.7% | 4.8% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.6% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.1% | 7.4% | 4.5% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.6% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 9.1% | 8.8% | 6.6% | 3.9% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 9.6% | 15.2% | 41.6% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.2% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 9.0% | 4.5% |
| Daniel Hodges | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 16.0% | 19.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.