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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
4.0
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Webb Institute1.73+7.52vs Predicted
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2Georgetown University2.76+3.38vs Predicted
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3Christopher Newport University1.21+8.74vs Predicted
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4Washington College1.66+7.00vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+4.48vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy3.01-0.20vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-0.55vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+1.08vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University0.95+4.25vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College2.51-3.15vs Predicted
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11U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-0.82vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania2.42-5.22vs Predicted
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13Columbia University1.28-1.61vs Predicted
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14Princeton University1.87-2.47vs Predicted
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15Cornell University1.70-5.83vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.12-0.83vs Predicted
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17George Washington University2.05-8.69vs Predicted
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18Hampton University1.47-7.06vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.52Webb Institute1.735.1%1st Place
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5.38Georgetown University2.7613.8%1st Place
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11.74Christopher Newport University1.213.2%1st Place
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11.0Washington College1.663.5%1st Place
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9.48Fordham University1.985.1%1st Place
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5.8U. S. Naval Academy3.0111.6%1st Place
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6.45St. Mary's College of Maryland2.659.6%1st Place
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9.08Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.465.3%1st Place
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13.25Old Dominion University0.952.1%1st Place
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6.85SUNY Maritime College2.519.2%1st Place
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10.18U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.6%1st Place
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6.78University of Pennsylvania2.428.5%1st Place
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11.39Columbia University1.282.6%1st Place
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11.53Princeton University1.872.2%1st Place
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9.17Cornell University1.704.9%1st Place
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15.17William and Mary0.120.6%1st Place
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8.31George Washington University2.055.8%1st Place
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10.94Hampton University1.473.3%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rayne Duff | 5.1% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.0% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| Jack Reiter | 13.8% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Brian Fox | 3.2% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 7.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.5% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 8.5% | 5.2% |
| Porter Kavle | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 1.8% |
| JC Hermus | 11.6% | 10.5% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 8.4% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.6% | 9.5% | 8.3% | 10.2% | 8.8% | 9.6% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 5.3% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| John Glenn | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 8.9% | 11.2% | 15.9% | 18.3% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.2% | 7.6% | 8.6% | 8.7% | 7.9% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 9.1% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 6.6% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 9.0% | 10.7% | 6.2% |
| Brooke Shachoy | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 1.3% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 9.3% | 13.8% | 43.1% |
| Matt Logue | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.3% | 3.8% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.9% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 4.7% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.