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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.98+8.70vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.01+3.93vs Predicted
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3Webb Institute1.73+5.55vs Predicted
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4Cornell University1.88+5.39vs Predicted
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5George Washington University2.19+3.19vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania2.42+0.64vs Predicted
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7Princeton University1.87+4.41vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.76-2.71vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46-0.09vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-3.53vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.51-4.09vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.66-1.01vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University1.21-1.32vs Predicted
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14Old Dominion University0.95-0.70vs Predicted
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15Columbia University1.28-3.73vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-5.73vs Predicted
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17Hampton University1.47-5.90vs Predicted
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18William and Mary0.12-3.01vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.7Fordham University1.984.4%1st Place
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5.93U. S. Naval Academy3.0111.5%1st Place
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8.55Webb Institute1.735.5%1st Place
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9.39Cornell University1.884.7%1st Place
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8.19George Washington University2.195.9%1st Place
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6.64University of Pennsylvania2.4210.0%1st Place
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11.41Princeton University1.873.0%1st Place
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5.29Georgetown University2.7613.1%1st Place
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8.91Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.464.5%1st Place
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6.47St. Mary's College of Maryland2.6510.2%1st Place
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6.91SUNY Maritime College2.518.6%1st Place
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10.99Washington College1.662.9%1st Place
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11.68Christopher Newport University1.213.0%1st Place
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13.3Old Dominion University0.951.7%1st Place
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11.27Columbia University1.282.9%1st Place
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10.27U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.6%1st Place
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11.1Hampton University1.473.5%1st Place
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14.99William and Mary0.121.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porter Kavle | 4.4% | 3.6% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 1.6% |
| JC Hermus | 11.5% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.5% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.9% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 1.7% |
| Michael Ehnot | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Jordan Bruce | 10.0% | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.0% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Connor Mraz | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 8.0% | 9.6% | 10.2% | 9.0% | 6.4% |
| Jack Reiter | 13.1% | 12.1% | 11.6% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Jake Vickers | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 5.9% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 2.6% | 0.8% |
| Leo Boucher | 10.2% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 9.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.6% | 8.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 4.7% |
| Brian Fox | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.3% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 12.0% | 7.6% |
| John Glenn | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 15.6% | 19.2% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.6% | 8.2% | 7.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 2.8% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.5% | 3.1% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 4.3% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 1.0% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 14.5% | 42.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.