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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Cornell University1.88+8.39vs Predicted
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2U. S. Naval Academy3.01+3.72vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania2.42+3.84vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.19+4.26vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.73+3.81vs Predicted
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6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+3.15vs Predicted
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7SUNY Maritime College2.51-0.08vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.76-2.67vs Predicted
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9U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+1.24vs Predicted
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10St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65-3.32vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.98-1.27vs Predicted
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12Christopher Newport University1.21-0.23vs Predicted
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13Old Dominion University1.44-1.44vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.28-2.39vs Predicted
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15Hampton University1.47-3.95vs Predicted
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16Washington College1.66-4.90vs Predicted
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17Princeton University1.87-5.32vs Predicted
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18William and Mary0.12-2.82vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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9.39Cornell University1.884.8%1st Place
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5.72U. S. Naval Academy3.0112.7%1st Place
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6.84University of Pennsylvania2.428.6%1st Place
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8.26George Washington University2.197.1%1st Place
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8.81Webb Institute1.735.7%1st Place
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9.15Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.464.8%1st Place
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6.92SUNY Maritime College2.519.0%1st Place
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5.33Georgetown University2.7613.0%1st Place
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10.24U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.5%1st Place
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6.68St. Mary's College of Maryland2.658.8%1st Place
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9.73Fordham University1.984.7%1st Place
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11.77Christopher Newport University1.212.9%1st Place
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11.56Old Dominion University1.442.6%1st Place
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11.61Columbia University1.282.3%1st Place
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11.05Hampton University1.473.2%1st Place
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11.1Washington College1.662.8%1st Place
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11.68Princeton University1.872.4%1st Place
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15.18William and Mary0.121.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meredith Moran | 4.8% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 1.7% |
| JC Hermus | 12.7% | 11.3% | 10.7% | 10.9% | 9.3% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 8.6% | 9.5% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Michael Ehnot | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| Jake Vickers | 4.8% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.0% | 8.6% | 7.4% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.4% |
| Jack Reiter | 13.0% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.9% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.5% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 3.3% |
| Leo Boucher | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 9.2% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 8.8% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Porter Kavle | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 1.9% |
| Brian Fox | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 11.3% | 8.8% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.6% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.9% | 10.2% | 10.2% | 7.6% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.3% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.7% | 7.6% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.7% | 9.2% | 5.3% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 6.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 9.6% | 11.6% | 7.0% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 1.0% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 12.9% | 47.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.