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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+5.86vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.19+6.45vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy3.01+2.89vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania2.42+2.78vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.76+0.34vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.88+3.53vs Predicted
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7U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54+3.21vs Predicted
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8Christopher Newport University1.21+3.71vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+0.18vs Predicted
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10Princeton University1.87+1.68vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College2.51-4.05vs Predicted
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12Washington College1.66-0.89vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.47-2.04vs Predicted
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14Columbia University1.28-2.63vs Predicted
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15Fordham University1.98-5.41vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute1.73-7.36vs Predicted
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17Old Dominion University1.44-5.32vs Predicted
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18William and Mary0.12-2.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.86St. Mary's College of Maryland2.657.6%1st Place
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8.45George Washington University2.195.8%1st Place
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5.89U. S. Naval Academy3.0111.8%1st Place
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6.78University of Pennsylvania2.429.4%1st Place
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5.34Georgetown University2.7614.2%1st Place
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9.53Cornell University1.884.1%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.544.0%1st Place
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11.71Christopher Newport University1.212.8%1st Place
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9.18Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.465.8%1st Place
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11.68Princeton University1.872.4%1st Place
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6.95SUNY Maritime College2.518.3%1st Place
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11.11Washington College1.662.9%1st Place
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10.96Hampton University1.473.7%1st Place
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11.37Columbia University1.283.0%1st Place
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9.59Fordham University1.984.3%1st Place
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8.64Webb Institute1.736.2%1st Place
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11.68Old Dominion University1.442.9%1st Place
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15.09William and Mary0.121.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Boucher | 7.6% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Michael Ehnot | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 4.4% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| JC Hermus | 11.8% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 8.6% | 9.0% | 7.7% | 8.2% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 3.7% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.4% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Jack Reiter | 14.2% | 12.3% | 9.6% | 11.2% | 10.7% | 9.4% | 7.6% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.1% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.1% |
| Lucas Sawin | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 8.2% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 3.6% |
| Brian Fox | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | 11.2% | 7.2% |
| Jake Vickers | 5.8% | 4.1% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.9% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 8.3% | 9.4% | 11.3% | 8.2% |
| Benton Amthor | 8.3% | 8.3% | 9.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 7.7% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 6.5% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.7% | 3.4% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.7% |
| Leopold Brandl | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 7.2% |
| Porter Kavle | 4.3% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 2.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 6.2% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.9% | 3.0% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.6% | 9.0% | 11.8% | 8.2% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 4.5% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 13.7% | 44.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.