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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
4.1
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.46+7.97vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.65+4.58vs Predicted
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3Georgetown University2.76+2.39vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy3.01+1.92vs Predicted
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5Fordham University1.98+4.66vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University1.21+6.01vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.19+1.44vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.88+1.64vs Predicted
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9Princeton University1.87+2.55vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.44+1.41vs Predicted
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11Columbia University1.28+0.75vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College2.51-5.16vs Predicted
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13Hampton University1.47-1.97vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.12+1.22vs Predicted
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15Webb Institute1.73-6.27vs Predicted
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16U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.54-5.79vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania2.42-10.41vs Predicted
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18Washington College1.66-6.94vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.97Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.465.2%1st Place
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6.58St. Mary's College of Maryland2.659.8%1st Place
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5.39Georgetown University2.7613.9%1st Place
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5.92U. S. Naval Academy3.0111.8%1st Place
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9.66Fordham University1.984.8%1st Place
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12.01Christopher Newport University1.211.9%1st Place
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8.44George Washington University2.195.0%1st Place
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9.64Cornell University1.884.4%1st Place
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11.55Princeton University1.872.6%1st Place
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11.41Old Dominion University1.442.5%1st Place
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11.75Columbia University1.282.4%1st Place
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6.84SUNY Maritime College2.519.7%1st Place
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11.03Hampton University1.473.1%1st Place
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15.22William and Mary0.120.9%1st Place
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8.73Webb Institute1.735.5%1st Place
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10.21U. S. Merchant Marine Academy1.543.6%1st Place
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6.59University of Pennsylvania2.429.8%1st Place
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11.06Washington College1.663.1%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Vickers | 5.2% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 3.4% | 0.9% |
| Leo Boucher | 9.8% | 8.8% | 9.7% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Jack Reiter | 13.9% | 12.9% | 10.9% | 9.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 4.7% | 4.5% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| JC Hermus | 11.8% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 9.8% | 8.9% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.6% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.7% | 0.9% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Porter Kavle | 4.8% | 4.6% | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 1.7% |
| Brian Fox | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 11.3% | 9.4% |
| Michael Ehnot | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 7.1% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% |
| Meredith Moran | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.5% |
| Connor Mraz | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 10.3% | 7.2% |
| Bridget Groble | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 10.7% | 7.0% |
| Leopold Brandl | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 4.1% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.9% | 8.5% |
| Benton Amthor | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.7% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Valerio Palamara | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 8.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 5.6% |
| Constantyn van der Voort | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 8.2% | 13.3% | 45.1% |
| Rayne Duff | 5.5% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.5% |
| Lucas Sawin | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 4.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 2.8% |
| Jordan Bruce | 9.8% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 10.1% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Stewart Gurnell | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 6.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.