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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.66vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.13+4.77vs Predicted
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3University of Pennsylvania1.59+5.20vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.57+4.78vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.43+3.69vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.59+7.57vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy1.97+0.57vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.41-2.54vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.53+0.14vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.90-1.37vs Predicted
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11Hampton University0.72+0.18vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.57-3.30vs Predicted
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13SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.99vs Predicted
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14Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00-5.20vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.84-3.16vs Predicted
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16William and Mary0.51-3.47vs Predicted
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17Washington College0.69-4.52vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.27-3.02vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.2%1st Place
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6.77George Washington University2.139.6%1st Place
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8.2University of Pennsylvania1.595.9%1st Place
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8.78Old Dominion University1.575.2%1st Place
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8.69Webb Institute1.435.6%1st Place
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13.57Christopher Newport University0.591.6%1st Place
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7.57U. S. Naval Academy1.978.2%1st Place
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5.46Georgetown University2.4113.6%1st Place
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9.14Fordham University1.534.5%1st Place
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8.63Cornell University1.905.1%1st Place
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11.18Hampton University0.723.1%1st Place
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8.7Fordham University1.575.5%1st Place
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8.01SUNY Maritime College1.886.9%1st Place
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8.8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.005.6%1st Place
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11.84Princeton University0.842.6%1st Place
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12.53William and Mary0.512.5%1st Place
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12.48Washington College0.691.7%1st Place
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14.98Columbia University-0.270.7%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.2% | 10.7% | 10.2% | 7.8% | 8.2% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 1.6% | 0.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 0.9% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.6% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 4.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.8% | 1.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 4.3% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 11.2% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| Gray Benson | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Scott Mais | 13.6% | 11.6% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 3.9% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 4.5% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 4.7% | 2.7% | 1.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.1% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.5% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.7% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 5.9% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 4.5% | 2.2% | 1.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Asher Green | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 11.1% | 10.2% | 7.8% |
| Nathan Whisner | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 12.6% | 14.2% | 11.1% |
| Alex Heim | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 9.8% | 11.5% | 13.5% | 9.7% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 5.9% | 8.8% | 15.5% | 40.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.