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📊 Prediction Accuracy
16.7%
Within 2 Positions
4.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Fordham University1.57+7.65vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+6.70vs Predicted
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3SUNY Maritime College1.88+4.86vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.41+1.52vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.90+3.65vs Predicted
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6William and Mary0.51+6.57vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.13-0.22vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.28vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.59+4.49vs Predicted
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10Webb Institute1.43-1.37vs Predicted
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11Old Dominion University1.57-2.11vs Predicted
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12U. S. Naval Academy1.97-4.39vs Predicted
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13Columbia University-0.27+2.36vs Predicted
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14Fordham University1.53-5.03vs Predicted
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15Washington College0.69-2.75vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.84-4.35vs Predicted
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17University of Pennsylvania1.59-8.61vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.72-6.68vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.65Fordham University1.574.8%1st Place
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8.7Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.004.9%1st Place
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7.86SUNY Maritime College1.887.4%1st Place
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5.52Georgetown University2.4112.4%1st Place
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8.65Cornell University1.904.4%1st Place
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12.57William and Mary0.511.9%1st Place
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6.78George Washington University2.139.2%1st Place
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5.72St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.4%1st Place
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13.49Christopher Newport University0.591.2%1st Place
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8.63Webb Institute1.436.9%1st Place
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8.89Old Dominion University1.576.5%1st Place
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7.61U. S. Naval Academy1.977.5%1st Place
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15.36Columbia University-0.270.5%1st Place
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8.97Fordham University1.535.8%1st Place
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12.25Washington College0.692.2%1st Place
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11.65Princeton University0.842.8%1st Place
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8.39University of Pennsylvania1.596.0%1st Place
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11.32Hampton University0.723.2%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Snyder | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 4.9% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 0.4% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Scott Mais | 12.4% | 11.9% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 8.8% | 7.9% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 4.4% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 2.3% | 0.9% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 10.7% | 15.9% | 10.6% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.3% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.4% | 12.2% | 9.6% | 10.5% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.8% | 3.9% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 16.2% | 17.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 6.9% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.1% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Gray Benson | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.5% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 15.8% | 43.4% |
| Michael Burns | 5.8% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 1.3% |
| Alex Heim | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 3.9% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 9.8% |
| Asher Green | 2.8% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 9.0% | 8.1% | 11.9% | 9.7% | 6.9% |
| Christopher Sharpless | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.2% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 7.8% | 8.6% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 4.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.