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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+5.54vs Predicted
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2University of Vermont3.62+9.37vs Predicted
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3Dartmouth College3.58+8.49vs Predicted
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4Washington College4.25+4.48vs Predicted
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5Harvard University4.52+2.53vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.70+4.81vs Predicted
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7Roger Williams University4.78-0.46vs Predicted
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8Brown University4.49-0.40vs Predicted
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9U. S. Naval Academy4.09+0.25vs Predicted
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10College of Charleston4.76-3.16vs Predicted
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11Boston College4.89-4.69vs Predicted
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12Salve Regina University3.92-1.73vs Predicted
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13Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.42-5.18vs Predicted
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14University of Miami3.99-4.64vs Predicted
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15U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-7.92vs Predicted
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16Princeton University2.30-0.61vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.67-2.56vs Predicted
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18Yale University2.77-4.11vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.54St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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11.37University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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11.49Dartmouth College3.580.0%1st Place
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8.48Washington College4.250.1%1st Place
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7.53Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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10.81Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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6.54Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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7.6Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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9.25U. S. Naval Academy4.090.0%1st Place
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6.84College of Charleston4.760.1%1st Place
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6.31Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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10.27Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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7.82Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.420.1%1st Place
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9.36University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
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7.08U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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15.39Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
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14.44Connecticut College2.670.0%1st Place
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13.89Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 9.4% | 10.2% | 9.5% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Coleman Bowen | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 2.8% | 4.2% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 9.4% | 10.5% | 7.3% | 3.7% |
| Edward Glackin | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 4.8% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 10.3% | 10.8% | 9.3% | 3.6% |
| Joseph Blouin | 6.4% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.0% |
| Alan Palmer | 8.0% | 8.4% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 8.5% | 5.8% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% |
| Massimo Soriano | 3.2% | 3.6% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 5.8% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 8.7% | 6.8% | 3.2% |
| Cy Thompson | 10.2% | 10.3% | 8.4% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Fred Strammer | 6.2% | 9.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 8.9% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Clark Hayes | 4.6% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 5.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Juan Maegli | 10.0% | 6.6% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Tyler Sinks | 10.6% | 10.7% | 9.2% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 3.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 4.8% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.1% | 8.6% | 9.1% | 7.4% | 5.6% | 1.9% |
| John Darby | 7.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 7.3% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Nicholas Voss | 4.6% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 1.6% |
| Samuel Ingham | 8.0% | 7.3% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 8.6% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Mary Gamber | 0.7% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 3.6% | 4.8% | 6.3% | 10.4% | 18.5% | 40.7% |
| Max Rollins | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 9.6% | 12.1% | 20.7% | 25.0% |
| Andrew Kurzrok | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 7.8% | 9.4% | 14.5% | 18.9% | 17.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.