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📊 Prediction Accuracy
37.5%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
16
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.61+3.35vs Predicted
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2Connecticut College2.59+5.42vs Predicted
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3University of Rhode Island3.84+0.82vs Predicted
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4Middlebury College1.85+6.07vs Predicted
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5McGill University0.56+8.40vs Predicted
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6Boston University2.55+1.66vs Predicted
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7U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.60+0.49vs Predicted
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8Northeastern University2.84-1.40vs Predicted
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9Roger Williams University2.92-2.62vs Predicted
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10University of Vermont2.67-2.67vs Predicted
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11Bowdoin College3.06-5.00vs Predicted
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12Bates College0.74+0.92vs Predicted
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13Tufts University2.28-4.56vs Predicted
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14University of Connecticut1.13-2.05vs Predicted
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15Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.49-1.43vs Predicted
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16Salve Regina University2.29-7.41vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.35Dartmouth College3.610.2%1st Place
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7.42Connecticut College2.590.1%1st Place
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3.82University of Rhode Island3.840.2%1st Place
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10.07Middlebury College1.850.0%1st Place
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13.4McGill University0.560.0%1st Place
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7.66Boston University2.550.1%1st Place
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7.49U. S. Coast Guard Academy2.600.1%1st Place
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6.6Northeastern University2.840.1%1st Place
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6.38Roger Williams University2.920.1%1st Place
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7.33University of Vermont2.670.1%1st Place
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6.0Bowdoin College3.060.1%1st Place
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12.92Bates College0.740.0%1st Place
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8.44Tufts University2.280.0%1st Place
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11.95University of Connecticut1.130.0%1st Place
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13.57Massachusetts Maritime Academy0.490.0%1st Place
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8.59Salve Regina University2.290.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Lalumiere | 16.0% | 15.9% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 11.5% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Ellis Tonissi | 5.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 9.3% | 6.7% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 2.8% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Rachel Bryer | 20.4% | 17.6% | 14.9% | 12.7% | 11.0% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Dragone | 2.2% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 4.9% | 3.6% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 9.0% | 11.7% | 11.9% | 10.6% | 7.7% | 2.8% |
| Oriane Longerstaey | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 4.1% | 5.7% | 9.0% | 15.8% | 22.1% | 28.6% |
| Conor Fowler | 5.2% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 9.0% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 8.6% | 7.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.6% | 4.1% | 1.7% | 0.1% |
| Bradley Brown | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 2.1% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Conor Lodge | 7.8% | 7.6% | 9.7% | 8.4% | 8.0% | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 9.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% |
| Ryan Powell | 8.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% |
| Forrest Short | 6.6% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 8.7% | 9.0% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.7% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 0.7% | 0.1% |
| Erin Mullins | 10.4% | 8.9% | 9.3% | 10.0% | 8.3% | 9.9% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Connor Bair-Cucchiaro | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 2.0% | 1.4% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 4.7% | 6.7% | 10.4% | 17.2% | 18.8% | 23.5% |
| Viktor Wettergren | 3.5% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 11.1% | 8.3% | 8.8% | 5.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% |
| Jennifer Lee | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.3% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 8.4% | 9.2% | 12.4% | 15.5% | 17.5% | 10.9% |
| Rory Egan | 0.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 8.8% | 14.8% | 21.7% | 32.6% |
| Christopher Jensen | 3.9% | 3.6% | 4.6% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 6.6% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 10.2% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 0.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.