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📊 Prediction Accuracy
38.9%
Within 2 Positions
2.8
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+5.74vs Predicted
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2University of Pennsylvania1.90+5.48vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.57+5.75vs Predicted
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4SUNY Maritime College1.88+3.85vs Predicted
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5Old Dominion University1.57+3.88vs Predicted
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6Georgetown University2.41-0.57vs Predicted
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7St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-1.39vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.90+0.49vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00-0.22vs Predicted
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10U. S. Naval Academy2.16-1.33vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute1.43-2.30vs Predicted
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12Hampton University0.72-0.97vs Predicted
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13Fordham University1.53-3.84vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.51-1.44vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.84-3.19vs Predicted
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16Washington College0.69-3.74vs Predicted
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17Christopher Newport University0.59-3.40vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.27-2.76vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.74George Washington University2.139.2%1st Place
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7.48University of Pennsylvania1.907.8%1st Place
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8.75Fordham University1.575.7%1st Place
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7.85SUNY Maritime College1.887.4%1st Place
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8.88Old Dominion University1.575.1%1st Place
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5.43Georgetown University2.4113.2%1st Place
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5.61St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.2%1st Place
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8.49Cornell University1.905.2%1st Place
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8.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.005.3%1st Place
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8.67U. S. Naval Academy2.165.7%1st Place
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8.7Webb Institute1.435.8%1st Place
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11.03Hampton University0.723.5%1st Place
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9.16Fordham University1.535.1%1st Place
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12.56William and Mary0.512.2%1st Place
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11.81Princeton University0.842.2%1st Place
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12.26Washington College0.692.2%1st Place
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13.6Christopher Newport University0.591.5%1st Place
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15.24Columbia University-0.270.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 9.2% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 8.1% | 6.9% | 8.5% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.8% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.4% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.1% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Scott Mais | 13.2% | 12.7% | 11.5% | 10.3% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.5% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 8.1% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 5.2% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.3% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 1.2% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.1% | 7.3% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.4% | 5.4% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 0.6% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 7.3% | 5.0% |
| Michael Burns | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 1.4% |
| Nathan Whisner | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 11.1% |
| Asher Green | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 7.2% |
| Alex Heim | 2.2% | 2.3% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 11.6% | 12.2% | 9.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.5% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 10.4% | 11.3% | 17.8% | 18.2% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 4.6% | 5.3% | 10.1% | 17.2% | 41.8% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.