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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Georgetown University2.75+3.67vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+6.64vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.16+5.56vs Predicted
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4George Washington University2.13+2.84vs Predicted
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5Webb Institute1.43+3.91vs Predicted
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6Cornell University1.90+2.54vs Predicted
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7Old Dominion University1.57+2.10vs Predicted
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8St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57-2.48vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.90-1.58vs Predicted
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10SUNY Maritime College1.88-2.21vs Predicted
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11Washington College0.69+1.15vs Predicted
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12Fordham University1.57-3.41vs Predicted
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13Hampton University0.72-1.85vs Predicted
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14Catholic University of America1.31-5.05vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.59-1.69vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.27-2.60vs Predicted
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17William and Mary0.51-4.54vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.27-3.00vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.67Georgetown University2.7516.2%1st Place
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8.64Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.006.0%1st Place
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8.56U. S. Naval Academy2.165.6%1st Place
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6.84George Washington University2.138.0%1st Place
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8.91Webb Institute1.434.7%1st Place
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8.54Cornell University1.905.3%1st Place
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9.1Old Dominion University1.573.5%1st Place
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5713.5%1st Place
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7.42University of Pennsylvania1.908.9%1st Place
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7.79SUNY Maritime College1.887.3%1st Place
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12.15Washington College0.691.9%1st Place
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8.59Fordham University1.575.5%1st Place
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11.15Hampton University0.723.2%1st Place
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8.95Catholic University of America1.314.7%1st Place
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13.31Christopher Newport University0.591.5%1st Place
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13.4Princeton University0.271.2%1st Place
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12.46William and Mary0.511.9%1st Place
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15.0Columbia University-0.271.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mariner Fagan | 16.2% | 15.4% | 11.8% | 11.3% | 10.5% | 8.6% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 6.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.6% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 1.6% | 0.4% |
| Cameron Feves | 8.0% | 8.2% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 4.5% | 2.5% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
| Payne Donaldson | 4.7% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Lilly Myers | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 7.9% | 6.4% | 6.9% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 4.8% | 4.2% | 2.2% | 0.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.5% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 3.2% | 1.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.5% | 11.8% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% | 1.2% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 8.9% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 0.8% | 0.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.3% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 7.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.4% |
| Alex Heim | 1.9% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 4.7% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 8.1% | 9.5% | 11.3% | 11.9% | 8.1% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.8% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.2% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 4.9% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 4.5% |
| John McKenna | 4.7% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.5% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 11.2% | 11.1% | 14.5% | 17.2% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.2% | 2.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 17.0% | 15.4% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 5.5% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 12.6% | 10.1% |
| Alexander Yuen | 1.0% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.7% | 1.4% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 9.6% | 16.7% | 38.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.