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📊 Prediction Accuracy
22.2%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+5.62vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.90+6.54vs Predicted
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3Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+5.73vs Predicted
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4St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+1.76vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.16+3.64vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.57+2.99vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.75-2.43vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.43+0.81vs Predicted
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9Washington College0.69+3.13vs Predicted
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10University of Pennsylvania1.90-2.65vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-2.43vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.88-4.08vs Predicted
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13Catholic University of America1.31-4.04vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.51-1.57vs Predicted
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15Princeton University0.27-1.66vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.59-2.60vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.72-5.86vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.27-2.89vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.62George Washington University2.138.8%1st Place
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8.54Cornell University1.906.6%1st Place
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8.73Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.005.9%1st Place
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5.76St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.9%1st Place
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8.64U. S. Naval Academy2.166.0%1st Place
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8.99Old Dominion University1.574.9%1st Place
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4.57Georgetown University2.7516.5%1st Place
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8.81Webb Institute1.435.3%1st Place
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12.13Washington College0.692.2%1st Place
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7.35University of Pennsylvania1.908.2%1st Place
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8.57Fordham University1.574.5%1st Place
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7.92SUNY Maritime College1.886.5%1st Place
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8.96Catholic University of America1.314.8%1st Place
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12.43William and Mary0.511.6%1st Place
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13.34Princeton University0.271.7%1st Place
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13.4Christopher Newport University0.591.4%1st Place
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11.14Hampton University0.722.4%1st Place
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15.11Columbia University-0.270.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 8.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 8.7% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 1.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lilly Myers | 6.6% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 4.2% | 3.4% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.9% | 4.7% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.7% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.9% | 11.5% | 10.0% | 10.2% | 8.1% | 9.2% | 8.2% | 8.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 7.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.5% | 4.3% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.9% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 2.5% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 16.5% | 15.9% | 13.4% | 11.1% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 6.2% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.1% | 0.8% |
| Alex Heim | 2.2% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.1% | 3.1% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 12.4% | 6.8% |
| Javier Garcon | 8.2% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 5.2% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.8% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Clayton Snyder | 4.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 8.3% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 0.1% |
| John McKenna | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 2.8% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.6% | 2.7% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 3.6% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.8% | 4.9% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.5% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.7% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 3.8% | 4.0% | 5.8% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 10.8% | 17.4% | 17.2% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.4% | 1.9% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 3.2% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.1% | 12.8% | 16.1% | 16.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 9.3% | 8.4% | 9.7% | 7.2% | 4.7% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.3% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 3.1% | 4.0% | 6.8% | 9.2% | 17.1% | 39.5% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.