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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+5.59vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.63vs Predicted
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3Cornell University1.90+5.73vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.16+4.74vs Predicted
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5University of Pennsylvania1.90+2.44vs Predicted
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6Old Dominion University1.57+2.83vs Predicted
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7Georgetown University2.75-2.33vs Predicted
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8Webb Institute1.43+0.88vs Predicted
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9Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00-0.40vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.53-0.92vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-2.24vs Predicted
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12William and Mary0.51+0.31vs Predicted
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13Washington College0.69-0.72vs Predicted
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14Princeton University0.27-0.67vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.88-7.21vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.59-2.81vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.72-5.89vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.27-2.96vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.59George Washington University2.139.6%1st Place
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5.63St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.5%1st Place
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8.73Cornell University1.905.5%1st Place
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8.74U. S. Naval Academy2.165.3%1st Place
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7.44University of Pennsylvania1.907.3%1st Place
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8.83Old Dominion University1.575.2%1st Place
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4.67Georgetown University2.7515.9%1st Place
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8.88Webb Institute1.435.1%1st Place
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8.6Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.005.2%1st Place
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9.08Fordham University1.535.1%1st Place
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8.76Fordham University1.576.1%1st Place
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12.31William and Mary0.512.4%1st Place
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12.28Washington College0.691.9%1st Place
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13.33Princeton University0.271.9%1st Place
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7.79SUNY Maritime College1.886.4%1st Place
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13.19Christopher Newport University0.591.8%1st Place
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11.11Hampton University0.722.9%1st Place
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15.04Columbia University-0.270.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 9.1% | 9.1% | 8.6% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.4% | 1.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.5% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 5.5% | 4.8% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 7.7% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.6% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 5.1% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 0.5% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.3% | 6.0% | 8.6% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.8% | 6.4% | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.8% |
| Mariner Fagan | 15.9% | 15.7% | 13.2% | 11.6% | 8.7% | 8.8% | 6.9% | 5.7% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.1% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.6% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.2% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Michael Burns | 5.1% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.6% |
| Clayton Snyder | 6.1% | 4.5% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| Nathan Whisner | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 9.1% | 12.0% | 12.9% | 9.6% |
| Alex Heim | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 3.3% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 9.9% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.4% | 15.6% | 15.2% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.4% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.3% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.8% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.1% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 14.8% | 16.7% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.9% | 3.8% | 3.0% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 3.4% | 3.5% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 5.0% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 17.2% | 38.6% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.