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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+7.71vs Predicted
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2St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+3.52vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.16+5.62vs Predicted
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4Webb Institute1.43+4.80vs Predicted
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5Georgetown University2.75-0.41vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.57+2.67vs Predicted
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7Cornell University1.90+1.58vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.57+0.75vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.53-0.12vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.69+2.10vs Predicted
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11George Washington University2.13-4.35vs Predicted
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12University of Pennsylvania1.90-4.58vs Predicted
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13William and Mary0.51-0.54vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-5.98vs Predicted
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15Christopher Newport University0.59-1.56vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.72-4.63vs Predicted
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17Princeton University0.27-3.65vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.27-2.91vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.71Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.004.9%1st Place
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5.52St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.4%1st Place
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8.62U. S. Naval Academy2.165.9%1st Place
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8.8Webb Institute1.435.3%1st Place
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4.59Georgetown University2.7518.1%1st Place
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8.67Fordham University1.576.2%1st Place
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8.58Cornell University1.904.9%1st Place
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8.75Old Dominion University1.575.7%1st Place
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8.88Fordham University1.534.6%1st Place
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12.1Washington College0.692.5%1st Place
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6.65George Washington University2.139.0%1st Place
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7.42University of Pennsylvania1.905.9%1st Place
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12.46William and Mary0.511.9%1st Place
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8.02SUNY Maritime College1.886.3%1st Place
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13.44Christopher Newport University0.591.1%1st Place
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11.37Hampton University0.723.0%1st Place
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13.35Princeton University0.271.2%1st Place
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15.09Columbia University-0.270.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Carraway | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.4% | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 0.9% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.4% | 12.3% | 10.9% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.9% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 4.6% | 4.3% | 2.4% | 0.8% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 0.7% |
| Mariner Fagan | 18.1% | 14.4% | 13.2% | 11.3% | 9.3% | 8.5% | 6.7% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 0.5% |
| Lilly Myers | 4.9% | 5.3% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 8.6% | 7.0% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 4.0% | 1.6% | 0.5% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.7% | 5.3% | 5.1% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 5.8% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.9% |
| Michael Burns | 4.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.1% | 7.7% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.5% | 0.7% |
| Alex Heim | 2.5% | 2.2% | 2.6% | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 9.4% | 11.2% | 12.4% | 8.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.0% | 9.2% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 2.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Javier Garcon | 5.9% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 8.3% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 4.9% | 4.2% | 2.9% | 1.6% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Nathan Whisner | 1.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 5.1% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 12.6% | 10.1% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.8% | 2.8% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 9.3% | 11.8% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.0% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 8.4% | 8.8% | 9.1% | 10.8% | 8.2% | 4.4% |
| Jasper Waldman | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.8% | 5.4% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 10.7% | 12.0% | 15.3% | 16.1% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.8% | 1.4% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.1% | 1.5% | 2.3% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 3.5% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 9.2% | 15.2% | 40.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.