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📊 Prediction Accuracy
33.3%
Within 2 Positions
3.5
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.67vs Predicted
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2Cornell University1.90+6.78vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.57+5.73vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+0.76vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.16+3.69vs Predicted
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6Fordham University1.53+3.14vs Predicted
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7Washington College0.69+5.31vs Predicted
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8Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+0.96vs Predicted
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9Old Dominion University1.57+0.08vs Predicted
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10George Washington University2.13-3.27vs Predicted
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11University of Pennsylvania1.90-3.65vs Predicted
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12Webb Institute1.43-3.23vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.84-1.26vs Predicted
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14William and Mary0.51-1.63vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.88-7.15vs Predicted
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16Christopher Newport University0.59-2.71vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.27-1.71vs Predicted
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18Hampton University0.72-6.52vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.67St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.2%1st Place
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8.78Cornell University1.905.2%1st Place
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8.73Fordham University1.575.3%1st Place
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4.76Georgetown University2.7516.6%1st Place
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8.69U. S. Naval Academy2.166.2%1st Place
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9.14Fordham University1.535.3%1st Place
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12.31Washington College0.692.1%1st Place
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8.96Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.004.8%1st Place
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9.08Old Dominion University1.573.9%1st Place
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6.73George Washington University2.138.6%1st Place
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7.35University of Pennsylvania1.908.5%1st Place
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8.77Webb Institute1.435.6%1st Place
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11.74Princeton University0.842.6%1st Place
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12.37William and Mary0.512.6%1st Place
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7.85SUNY Maritime College1.886.8%1st Place
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13.29Christopher Newport University0.591.7%1st Place
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15.29Columbia University-0.270.8%1st Place
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11.48Hampton University0.722.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 11.2% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Lilly Myers | 5.2% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 1.8% | 0.9% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 6.0% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 4.2% | 2.4% | 0.9% |
| Mariner Fagan | 16.6% | 13.9% | 13.5% | 10.4% | 9.4% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 6.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | 0.6% |
| Michael Burns | 5.3% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.6% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.6% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 5.4% | 5.8% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| Alex Heim | 2.1% | 1.8% | 3.1% | 2.7% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 3.6% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 6.0% | 7.5% | 10.3% | 12.8% | 12.1% | 9.4% |
| Charles Carraway | 4.8% | 4.6% | 6.0% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 6.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.3% | 6.7% | 5.0% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 0.4% |
| Parker Purrington | 3.9% | 4.7% | 5.4% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.7% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| Cameron Feves | 8.6% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 8.0% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 7.7% | 7.6% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 8.5% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 8.7% | 6.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.6% | 6.6% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 5.5% | 6.9% | 5.4% | 3.6% | 2.6% | 1.1% |
| Asher Green | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 3.7% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 8.5% | 11.5% | 11.1% | 7.1% |
| Nathan Whisner | 2.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 5.5% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 11.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 7.5% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 7.8% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.8% | 4.0% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.7% | 2.1% | 1.7% | 2.4% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.4% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 10.9% | 17.3% | 17.0% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 3.4% | 4.0% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 9.2% | 14.8% | 43.0% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 8.4% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 8.8% | 9.5% | 5.3% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.