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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
2.9
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+5.82vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+6.61vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.66vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+0.61vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.16+3.72vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.90+1.32vs Predicted
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7Webb Institute1.43+1.69vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.90+0.33vs Predicted
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9Princeton University0.84+2.60vs Predicted
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10Old Dominion University1.57-1.21vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-2.51vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.69+0.02vs Predicted
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13Christopher Newport University0.59+0.05vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-6.30vs Predicted
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15William and Mary-0.67+0.84vs Predicted
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16Fordham University1.53-6.97vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.72-6.04vs Predicted
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18Columbia University-0.27-3.23vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.82George Washington University2.138.3%1st Place
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8.61Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.004.9%1st Place
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5.66St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5711.7%1st Place
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4.61Georgetown University2.7516.3%1st Place
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8.72U. S. Naval Academy2.165.3%1st Place
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7.32University of Pennsylvania1.907.1%1st Place
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8.69Webb Institute1.435.5%1st Place
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8.33Cornell University1.905.9%1st Place
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11.6Princeton University0.842.1%1st Place
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8.79Old Dominion University1.575.8%1st Place
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8.49Fordham University1.576.2%1st Place
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12.02Washington College0.691.8%1st Place
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13.05Christopher Newport University0.592.1%1st Place
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7.7SUNY Maritime College1.887.2%1st Place
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15.84William and Mary-0.670.5%1st Place
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9.03Fordham University1.535.3%1st Place
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10.96Hampton University0.723.0%1st Place
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14.77Columbia University-0.270.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 8.3% | 8.8% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 8.7% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| Charles Carraway | 4.9% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 6.8% | 6.4% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 6.1% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Owen Hennessey | 11.7% | 12.7% | 10.4% | 10.3% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 2.0% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Mariner Fagan | 16.3% | 16.0% | 13.1% | 10.8% | 9.4% | 8.7% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 4.0% | 1.8% | 0.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.1% | 6.9% | 8.2% | 7.8% | 8.1% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 5.8% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.9% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Payne Donaldson | 5.5% | 5.0% | 5.8% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 0.7% |
| Lilly Myers | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 7.1% | 5.5% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.3% | 0.3% |
| Asher Green | 2.1% | 3.1% | 3.4% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 11.3% | 11.5% | 8.6% | 4.1% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.8% | 5.5% | 5.3% | 5.4% | 5.6% | 6.3% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 3.9% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| Clayton Snyder | 6.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.5% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| Alex Heim | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.5% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 4.5% | 5.3% | 5.8% | 7.7% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 12.0% | 10.1% | 6.3% |
| Luke Hayes | 2.1% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.1% | 2.7% | 3.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 6.2% | 6.8% | 10.4% | 14.3% | 16.6% | 10.7% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.2% | 6.2% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 8.2% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.1% |
| Julia Hudson | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.6% | 2.7% | 3.3% | 5.4% | 9.4% | 19.2% | 46.1% |
| Michael Burns | 5.3% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.4% | 5.2% | 4.8% | 2.1% | 0.5% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.0% | 3.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 5.1% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.4% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 9.4% | 8.8% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 3.5% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 3.0% | 4.3% | 6.2% | 8.0% | 10.9% | 23.9% | 26.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.