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📊 Prediction Accuracy
44.4%
Within 2 Positions
3.2
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1U. S. Naval Academy2.16+7.32vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+6.42vs Predicted
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3Fordham University1.53+5.70vs Predicted
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4Georgetown University2.75+0.46vs Predicted
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5St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+0.35vs Predicted
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6Christopher Newport University0.59+7.04vs Predicted
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7George Washington University2.13-0.40vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.90+0.16vs Predicted
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9University of Pennsylvania1.90-1.91vs Predicted
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10Washington College0.69+1.73vs Predicted
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11Fordham University1.57-2.59vs Predicted
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12Old Dominion University1.57-3.25vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.84-1.68vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-6.48vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-0.27-0.32vs Predicted
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16Webb Institute0.65-3.88vs Predicted
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17Hampton University0.72-6.17vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-0.67-2.49vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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8.32U. S. Naval Academy2.165.9%1st Place
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8.42Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.005.7%1st Place
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8.7Fordham University1.534.9%1st Place
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4.46Georgetown University2.7517.8%1st Place
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5.35St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5713.1%1st Place
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13.04Christopher Newport University0.591.6%1st Place
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6.6George Washington University2.139.4%1st Place
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8.16Cornell University1.905.7%1st Place
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7.09University of Pennsylvania1.907.0%1st Place
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11.73Washington College0.692.8%1st Place
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8.41Fordham University1.575.0%1st Place
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8.75Old Dominion University1.575.5%1st Place
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11.32Princeton University0.842.8%1st Place
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7.52SUNY Maritime College1.886.0%1st Place
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14.68Columbia University-0.270.9%1st Place
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12.12Webb Institute0.652.5%1st Place
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10.83Hampton University0.722.7%1st Place
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15.51William and Mary-0.670.9%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.9% | 5.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 7.0% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.1% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 7.0% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 1.9% | 0.2% |
| Michael Burns | 4.9% | 5.4% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 17.8% | 15.6% | 14.1% | 11.5% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.5% | 3.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% |
| Owen Hennessey | 13.1% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.9% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% | 1.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.0% | 1.8% | 1.6% | 2.6% | 2.5% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 3.9% | 4.8% | 4.8% | 6.5% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 13.9% | 16.2% | 9.8% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.4% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 8.8% | 8.5% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 7.5% | 6.7% | 6.2% | 5.1% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Lilly Myers | 5.7% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 7.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.0% | 8.4% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 7.8% | 8.5% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 3.4% | 2.1% | 1.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| Alex Heim | 2.8% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 2.4% | 3.5% | 3.5% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 7.8% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 11.4% | 9.7% | 5.4% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.0% | 6.0% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.0% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 0.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.5% | 4.3% | 5.8% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 7.1% | 6.5% | 6.0% | 7.9% | 8.1% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 7.2% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% |
| Asher Green | 2.8% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.6% | 3.7% | 4.9% | 4.7% | 5.9% | 5.3% | 8.6% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 9.8% | 10.2% | 8.6% | 3.3% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.0% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.5% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 1.3% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.9% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 1.9% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 3.1% | 3.1% | 5.1% | 5.3% | 7.9% | 13.0% | 19.8% | 27.4% |
| Evan Spalding | 2.5% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.2% | 5.6% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% | 10.5% | 12.4% | 11.8% | 5.8% |
| Stefano Palamara | 2.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 3.9% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 5.1% | 5.5% | 7.4% | 6.5% | 8.6% | 8.8% | 10.0% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 2.9% |
| Julia Hudson | 0.9% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 1.8% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 2.9% | 3.2% | 4.2% | 5.9% | 9.6% | 18.0% | 42.9% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.