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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.4
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1George Washington University2.13+5.46vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+6.47vs Predicted
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3St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+2.45vs Predicted
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4University of Pennsylvania1.90+3.10vs Predicted
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5Cornell University1.90+3.38vs Predicted
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6U. S. Naval Academy2.16+2.25vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.53+1.91vs Predicted
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8Old Dominion University1.57+0.35vs Predicted
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9Christopher Newport University0.59+4.15vs Predicted
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10Fordham University1.57-1.72vs Predicted
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11Webb Institute0.65+1.09vs Predicted
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12Georgetown University2.75-7.55vs Predicted
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13Princeton University0.84-1.75vs Predicted
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14Washington College0.69-2.19vs Predicted
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15SUNY Maritime College1.88-7.41vs Predicted
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16Hampton University0.72-5.30vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.27-2.24vs Predicted
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18William and Mary-0.67-2.44vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.46George Washington University2.139.6%1st Place
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8.47Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.005.1%1st Place
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5.45St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5712.8%1st Place
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7.1University of Pennsylvania1.908.2%1st Place
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8.38Cornell University1.905.1%1st Place
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8.25U. S. Naval Academy2.166.0%1st Place
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8.91Fordham University1.534.8%1st Place
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8.35Old Dominion University1.575.3%1st Place
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13.15Christopher Newport University0.591.1%1st Place
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8.28Fordham University1.576.2%1st Place
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12.09Webb Institute0.651.8%1st Place
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4.45Georgetown University2.7518.4%1st Place
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11.25Princeton University0.842.5%1st Place
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11.81Washington College0.691.7%1st Place
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7.59SUNY Maritime College1.887.1%1st Place
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10.7Hampton University0.723.3%1st Place
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14.76Columbia University-0.270.8%1st Place
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15.56William and Mary-0.670.4%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Feves | 9.6% | 9.2% | 9.0% | 9.8% | 8.8% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 7.8% | 6.6% | 6.3% | 5.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Charles Carraway | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.1% | 7.4% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 0.2% |
| Owen Hennessey | 12.8% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 9.5% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.5% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Javier Garcon | 8.2% | 8.6% | 8.3% | 7.2% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.3% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.2% |
| Lilly Myers | 5.1% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 8.0% | 6.9% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 6.0% | 5.9% | 6.2% | 6.2% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.7% | 5.9% | 8.1% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.3% |
| Michael Burns | 4.8% | 5.2% | 5.7% | 6.0% | 5.3% | 6.7% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 7.8% | 5.9% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 5.7% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% |
| Parker Purrington | 5.3% | 5.9% | 5.7% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 8.1% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 0.3% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.1% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 8.2% | 10.4% | 14.6% | 15.3% | 10.4% |
| Clayton Snyder | 6.2% | 5.2% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 6.7% | 6.1% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 5.9% | 4.6% | 2.5% | 1.3% | 0.4% |
| Evan Spalding | 1.8% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 2.1% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.9% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.5% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.2% | 10.5% | 6.1% |
| Mariner Fagan | 18.4% | 14.8% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.5% | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Asher Green | 2.5% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 4.1% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 10.0% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 8.2% | 2.9% |
| Alex Heim | 1.7% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 5.2% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 10.9% | 10.2% | 5.8% |
| Spencer Barnes | 7.1% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.0% | 7.7% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.6% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 4.3% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 1.7% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.3% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 7.3% | 9.6% | 9.2% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 2.0% |
| Alexander Yuen | 0.8% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.9% | 7.5% | 11.6% | 20.7% | 28.4% |
| Julia Hudson | 0.4% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 1.6% | 2.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% | 7.0% | 9.4% | 18.6% | 42.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.