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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland4.83+5.66vs Predicted
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2Roger Williams University4.78+4.70vs Predicted
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3College of Charleston4.76+3.81vs Predicted
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4University of Miami3.99+5.55vs Predicted
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5Washington College4.25+3.51vs Predicted
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6Harvard University4.52+1.60vs Predicted
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7Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.42+1.00vs Predicted
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8University of Vermont3.62+3.01vs Predicted
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9Boston College4.89-2.91vs Predicted
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10Tufts University3.70+1.08vs Predicted
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11Salve Regina University3.92-0.88vs Predicted
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12Brown University4.49-4.04vs Predicted
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13U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.63-6.00vs Predicted
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14Dartmouth College3.58-3.04vs Predicted
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15Yale University2.77-0.99vs Predicted
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16U. S. Naval Academy4.09-6.67vs Predicted
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17Connecticut College2.67-2.54vs Predicted
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18Princeton University2.30-2.84vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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6.66St. Mary's College of Maryland4.830.1%1st Place
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6.7Roger Williams University4.780.1%1st Place
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6.81College of Charleston4.760.1%1st Place
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9.55University of Miami3.990.0%1st Place
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8.51Washington College4.250.1%1st Place
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7.6Harvard University4.520.1%1st Place
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8.0Hobart and William Smith Colleges4.420.1%1st Place
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11.01University of Vermont3.620.0%1st Place
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6.09Boston College4.890.1%1st Place
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11.08Tufts University3.700.0%1st Place
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10.12Salve Regina University3.920.0%1st Place
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7.96Brown University4.490.1%1st Place
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7.0U. S. Coast Guard Academy4.630.1%1st Place
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10.96Dartmouth College3.580.0%1st Place
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14.01Yale University2.770.0%1st Place
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9.33U. S. Naval Academy4.090.0%1st Place
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14.46Connecticut College2.670.0%1st Place
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15.16Princeton University2.300.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Menninger | 8.8% | 10.3% | 8.8% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 5.7% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Cy Thompson | 8.1% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 8.0% | 8.3% | 7.4% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.2% | 3.9% | 4.9% | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Juan Maegli | 7.9% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 9.5% | 8.0% | 8.5% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Voss | 4.6% | 4.3% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 4.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 7.1% | 8.5% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| Joseph Blouin | 5.6% | 7.1% | 6.3% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 6.1% | 6.2% | 5.0% | 7.2% | 7.4% | 6.8% | 6.2% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.2% | 3.5% | 2.4% | 0.5% |
| Alan Palmer | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.8% | 6.7% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 6.1% | 7.2% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.3% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| John Darby | 6.6% | 7.3% | 6.4% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 5.2% | 7.3% | 7.0% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 5.8% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 1.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% |
| Coleman Bowen | 3.8% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 3.6% | 5.0% | 4.1% | 4.0% | 5.5% | 4.4% | 4.8% | 7.2% | 7.2% | 8.9% | 10.9% | 9.9% | 6.6% | 4.0% |
| Tyler Sinks | 10.2% | 10.8% | 10.0% | 9.4% | 9.3% | 7.5% | 9.2% | 7.6% | 5.2% | 5.8% | 4.7% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 1.0% | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Massimo Soriano | 4.3% | 2.9% | 2.8% | 3.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 5.4% | 7.1% | 8.3% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 8.8% | 8.6% | 3.3% |
| Peter Pellegrini | 4.2% | 4.3% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 4.0% | 4.6% | 4.1% | 6.3% | 7.4% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 8.8% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.7% | 5.5% | 2.4% |
| Fred Strammer | 7.3% | 6.7% | 7.1% | 5.8% | 7.4% | 7.8% | 5.6% | 6.6% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 7.8% | 5.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.4% |
| Samuel Ingham | 9.8% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 8.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 7.0% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 4.0% | 3.3% | 2.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% | 0.0% |
| Edward Glackin | 3.4% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 3.5% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 5.8% | 5.7% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.5% | 10.9% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 4.1% |
| Andrew Kurzrok | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 7.0% | 8.7% | 13.5% | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| Clark Hayes | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 7.0% | 6.4% | 7.2% | 5.9% | 6.7% | 7.4% | 7.2% | 6.0% | 5.6% | 2.7% | 1.4% |
| Max Rollins | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.9% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 6.6% | 8.2% | 12.1% | 21.0% | 24.9% |
| Mary Gamber | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 1.3% | 2.1% | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 2.4% | 1.8% | 2.4% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 8.1% | 11.6% | 19.0% | 36.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.