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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.7
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.83vs Predicted
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2Fordham University3.25+2.70vs Predicted
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3U. S. Military Academy1.22+6.87vs Predicted
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4U. S. Naval Academy2.51+2.63vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.18+0.02vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.52-1.86vs Predicted
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7Yale University3.72-3.32vs Predicted
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8Bates College1.32+1.72vs Predicted
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9Drexel University-0.06+3.77vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.74-1.26vs Predicted
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11SUNY Maritime College1.57-1.92vs Predicted
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12St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-6.58vs Predicted
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13University of Buffalo0.87-2.07vs Predicted
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14Sacred Heart University0.12-1.61vs Predicted
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15Columbia University-0.31-1.93vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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4.7Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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9.87U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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6.63U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
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5.02Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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4.14Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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3.68Yale University3.720.2%1st Place
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9.72Bates College1.320.0%1st Place
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12.77Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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8.74Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.08SUNY Maritime College1.570.0%1st Place
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5.42St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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10.93University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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12.39Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
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13.07Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 20.2% | 15.7% | 15.6% | 13.4% | 9.5% | 10.3% | 7.4% | 3.3% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 11.7% | 14.3% | 11.0% | 12.4% | 13.3% | 11.6% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 5.2% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.5% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 3.9% | 4.1% | 5.9% | 5.9% | 9.8% | 12.8% | 15.4% | 14.3% | 11.8% | 7.3% | 1.5% |
| Charles Peck | 5.1% | 5.6% | 7.8% | 8.8% | 8.2% | 10.7% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 5.9% | 3.0% | 1.0% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 10.7% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 12.6% | 11.1% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.4% | 5.6% | 3.0% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 14.4% | 14.4% | 17.2% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 10.7% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 20.1% | 17.7% | 15.9% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 7.9% | 6.5% | 2.9% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Moan | 1.7% | 1.5% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 4.4% | 5.9% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 14.6% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 5.1% | 1.9% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 7.2% | 9.6% | 16.5% | 23.6% | 27.6% |
| Colin Keil | 2.3% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 3.4% | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.9% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 13.6% | 12.6% | 10.3% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 0.6% |
| Nicholas Wallinder | 2.5% | 2.4% | 2.1% | 3.5% | 3.8% | 5.6% | 8.2% | 8.8% | 11.3% | 15.0% | 12.5% | 11.6% | 7.5% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| John Wallace | 8.1% | 9.3% | 11.0% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.6% | 12.7% | 10.7% | 7.4% | 4.1% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Green | 0.8% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.9% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.3% | 6.2% | 6.7% | 9.5% | 12.4% | 16.0% | 17.1% | 12.6% | 6.6% |
| Brian Reilly | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 1.1% | 1.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.0% | 5.2% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 15.7% | 24.1% | 21.0% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 4.1% | 5.6% | 7.7% | 13.2% | 20.3% | 39.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.