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📊 Prediction Accuracy
27.8%
Within 2 Positions
3.3
Avg Position Diff
18
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1St. Mary's College of Maryland2.57+4.33vs Predicted
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2George Washington University2.13+4.62vs Predicted
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3U. S. Naval Academy2.16+5.41vs Predicted
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4Old Dominion University1.57+4.68vs Predicted
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5Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.00+3.13vs Predicted
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6University of Pennsylvania1.90+1.00vs Predicted
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7Fordham University1.57+1.16vs Predicted
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8Georgetown University2.75-3.44vs Predicted
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9Fordham University1.53-0.24vs Predicted
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10William and Mary-0.67+5.62vs Predicted
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11Cornell University1.90-2.79vs Predicted
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12Washington College0.69-0.14vs Predicted
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13Webb Institute0.65-0.96vs Predicted
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14SUNY Maritime College1.88-6.51vs Predicted
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15Hampton University0.72-4.04vs Predicted
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16Princeton University0.84-4.54vs Predicted
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17Columbia University-0.27-2.27vs Predicted
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18Christopher Newport University0.59-5.03vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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5.33St. Mary's College of Maryland2.5714.5%1st Place
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6.62George Washington University2.139.0%1st Place
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8.41U. S. Naval Academy2.165.8%1st Place
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8.68Old Dominion University1.574.5%1st Place
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8.13Hobart and William Smith Colleges2.006.9%1st Place
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7.0University of Pennsylvania1.907.3%1st Place
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8.16Fordham University1.575.1%1st Place
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4.56Georgetown University2.7517.0%1st Place
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8.76Fordham University1.534.7%1st Place
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15.62William and Mary-0.670.6%1st Place
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8.21Cornell University1.905.2%1st Place
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11.86Washington College0.692.5%1st Place
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12.04Webb Institute0.652.0%1st Place
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7.49SUNY Maritime College1.886.7%1st Place
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10.96Hampton University0.723.2%1st Place
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11.46Princeton University0.842.4%1st Place
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14.73Columbia University-0.271.1%1st Place
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12.97Christopher Newport University0.591.8%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Hennessey | 14.5% | 12.7% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 7.2% | 5.8% | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Cameron Feves | 9.0% | 8.6% | 9.6% | 8.2% | 9.0% | 8.8% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 6.6% | 5.7% | 5.7% | 5.2% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Olivia de Olazarra | 5.8% | 5.3% | 5.2% | 6.0% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.3% | 7.5% | 5.9% | 6.5% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.4% | 1.2% | 0.2% |
| Parker Purrington | 4.5% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 5.9% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 5.6% | 5.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 0.4% |
| Charles Carraway | 6.9% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 5.5% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 6.6% | 7.1% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.6% | 5.4% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% |
| Javier Garcon | 7.3% | 7.0% | 9.6% | 8.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.1% | 5.1% | 4.5% | 2.9% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
| Clayton Snyder | 5.1% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 6.6% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.4% | 5.9% | 4.9% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| Mariner Fagan | 17.0% | 15.1% | 13.7% | 11.4% | 10.8% | 8.3% | 5.8% | 5.3% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 2.4% | 1.6% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Michael Burns | 4.7% | 6.2% | 5.3% | 5.5% | 6.2% | 5.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.3% | 7.3% | 6.8% | 8.1% | 7.6% | 5.5% | 4.9% | 3.8% | 2.0% | 0.4% |
| Julia Hudson | 0.6% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.9% | 1.2% | 1.3% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 2.0% | 2.2% | 1.3% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 3.8% | 5.5% | 8.9% | 18.2% | 45.0% |
| Lilly Myers | 5.2% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.5% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 7.6% | 7.8% | 6.8% | 7.6% | 7.4% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.6% | 3.9% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| Alex Heim | 2.5% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 2.8% | 3.7% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 4.8% | 5.3% | 5.7% | 5.9% | 7.4% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 12.5% | 9.0% | 5.0% |
| Evan Spalding | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.0% | 2.5% | 3.2% | 3.0% | 3.6% | 4.4% | 5.1% | 5.2% | 6.9% | 7.8% | 8.9% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 5.9% |
| Spencer Barnes | 6.7% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 6.7% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.5% | 7.9% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 6.5% | 5.3% | 5.6% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| Stefano Palamara | 3.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 8.1% | 6.6% | 8.1% | 8.6% | 10.4% | 9.8% | 5.3% | 2.5% |
| Asher Green | 2.4% | 2.4% | 2.6% | 3.5% | 3.3% | 3.8% | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.0% | 7.1% | 8.1% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.0% | 8.8% | 3.5% |
| Alexander Yuen | 1.1% | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 0.7% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.7% | 3.8% | 4.2% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 11.1% | 24.1% | 25.9% |
| Luke Hayes | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | 2.7% | 2.5% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 2.9% | 4.3% | 5.1% | 5.1% | 6.6% | 8.6% | 9.7% | 14.3% | 15.2% | 10.2% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.