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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
1.8
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+2.83vs Predicted
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2Tufts University3.52+2.05vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.25+1.70vs Predicted
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4Yale University3.72-0.27vs Predicted
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5Dartmouth College3.18+0.02vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.57+3.13vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.51-0.40vs Predicted
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8U. S. Military Academy1.22+1.95vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.75vs Predicted
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10Cornell University1.74-1.32vs Predicted
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11Columbia University-0.31+2.15vs Predicted
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12Bates College1.32-2.07vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-0.06-0.15vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo0.87-3.21vs Predicted
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15Sacred Heart University0.12-2.65vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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3.83Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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4.05Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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4.7Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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3.73Yale University3.720.2%1st Place
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5.02Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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9.13SUNY Maritime College1.570.0%1st Place
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6.6U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
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9.95U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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5.25St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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8.68Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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13.15Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
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9.93Bates College1.320.0%1st Place
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12.85Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.79University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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12.35Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Padnos | 18.4% | 16.4% | 16.4% | 13.7% | 12.0% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Willem Sandberg | 14.8% | 18.5% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 12.1% | 8.9% | 8.6% | 4.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 11.4% | 12.4% | 13.9% | 11.2% | 13.1% | 12.2% | 10.3% | 7.3% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 20.2% | 16.7% | 14.1% | 15.5% | 11.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 11.0% | 10.1% | 11.3% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 14.9% | 8.5% | 9.6% | 5.7% | 3.3% | 1.1% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Wallinder | 2.2% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 3.0% | 4.2% | 4.8% | 5.8% | 10.2% | 13.0% | 14.5% | 14.7% | 11.4% | 7.3% | 3.4% | 0.8% |
| Charles Peck | 6.3% | 5.6% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.6% | 11.0% | 13.5% | 11.5% | 11.6% | 8.9% | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.4% | 5.7% | 7.4% | 9.6% | 12.4% | 14.7% | 14.4% | 12.1% | 6.8% | 2.6% |
| John Wallace | 8.0% | 10.1% | 11.4% | 12.5% | 12.7% | 10.6% | 12.2% | 10.8% | 6.3% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 2.5% | 3.0% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 5.1% | 6.0% | 7.2% | 11.3% | 14.0% | 14.5% | 13.4% | 9.1% | 5.1% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 12.7% | 22.5% | 38.7% |
| Edward Moan | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.8% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 4.0% | 5.3% | 7.7% | 11.0% | 13.1% | 15.7% | 14.9% | 12.0% | 5.5% | 1.7% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 1.4% | 1.6% | 2.8% | 3.5% | 4.6% | 4.9% | 9.5% | 16.6% | 24.9% | 28.5% |
| Andrew Green | 0.9% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.4% | 4.3% | 5.3% | 7.5% | 10.2% | 14.4% | 15.5% | 14.8% | 13.6% | 4.6% |
| Brian Reilly | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.8% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 6.5% | 6.1% | 13.5% | 17.7% | 20.9% | 22.1% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.