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📊 Prediction Accuracy
46.7%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Tufts University3.52+3.11vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.77vs Predicted
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3Yale University3.72+0.70vs Predicted
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4Bates College1.32+5.73vs Predicted
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5U. S. Naval Academy2.51+1.64vs Predicted
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6SUNY Maritime College1.57+3.09vs Predicted
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7Fordham University3.25-2.23vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.74+0.65vs Predicted
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9U. S. Military Academy1.22+0.92vs Predicted
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10Dartmouth College3.18-4.97vs Predicted
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11St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-5.64vs Predicted
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12Columbia University-0.31+1.31vs Predicted
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13Drexel University-0.06-0.17vs Predicted
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14University of Buffalo0.87-3.22vs Predicted
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15Sacred Heart University0.12-2.69vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.11Tufts University3.520.2%1st Place
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3.77Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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3.7Yale University3.720.2%1st Place
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9.73Bates College1.320.0%1st Place
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6.64U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
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9.09SUNY Maritime College1.570.0%1st Place
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4.77Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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8.65Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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9.92U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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5.03Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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5.36St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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13.31Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
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12.83Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
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10.78University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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12.31Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willem Sandberg | 16.5% | 15.4% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 12.6% | 11.0% | 7.9% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 18.3% | 18.5% | 15.6% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 3.9% | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 19.6% | 17.0% | 15.1% | 16.3% | 9.6% | 9.8% | 5.4% | 4.7% | 1.5% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Edward Moan | 1.4% | 1.5% | 2.7% | 2.7% | 3.6% | 3.3% | 6.1% | 7.6% | 12.5% | 11.2% | 14.9% | 15.0% | 7.8% | 7.0% | 2.7% |
| Charles Peck | 5.8% | 6.7% | 6.5% | 7.6% | 8.0% | 10.2% | 12.3% | 13.1% | 11.1% | 8.7% | 5.1% | 4.3% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Nicholas Wallinder | 2.0% | 2.4% | 2.8% | 3.2% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 5.7% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 15.6% | 15.0% | 10.4% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 1.1% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 11.2% | 12.4% | 12.5% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 12.7% | 9.4% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 2.0% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 2.8% | 1.9% | 3.5% | 4.1% | 4.8% | 6.4% | 8.6% | 10.2% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 11.6% | 10.3% | 6.5% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 2.2% | 2.7% | 4.2% | 5.5% | 8.3% | 9.7% | 15.5% | 13.7% | 14.3% | 12.8% | 5.6% | 1.5% |
| Kelsey Wheeler | 10.0% | 9.6% | 11.7% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 11.6% | 10.9% | 7.6% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| John Wallace | 8.9% | 10.9% | 12.1% | 9.9% | 10.0% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 9.8% | 7.7% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 1.0% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 13.4% | 24.7% | 39.5% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.7% | 1.7% | 2.8% | 3.1% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 10.4% | 15.5% | 25.0% | 28.1% |
| Andrew Green | 0.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 4.6% | 5.6% | 7.9% | 9.9% | 13.8% | 15.5% | 17.4% | 10.5% | 5.5% |
| Brian Reilly | 0.4% | 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.7% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 3.0% | 3.2% | 6.2% | 9.0% | 10.3% | 18.1% | 21.9% | 21.0% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.