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📊 Prediction Accuracy
53.3%
Within 2 Positions
2.5
Avg Position Diff
15
Total Participants
🏁 Actual Results
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1Dartmouth College3.18+3.94vs Predicted
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2Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.65+1.78vs Predicted
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3Fordham University3.25+1.73vs Predicted
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4U. S. Military Academy1.22+5.94vs Predicted
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5Bates College1.32+4.69vs Predicted
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6Tufts University3.52-1.84vs Predicted
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7U. S. Naval Academy2.51-0.41vs Predicted
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8Cornell University1.74+0.70vs Predicted
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9St. Mary's College of Maryland3.05-3.73vs Predicted
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10Yale University3.72-6.21vs Predicted
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11University of Buffalo0.87-0.15vs Predicted
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12SUNY Maritime College1.57-2.75vs Predicted
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13Columbia University-0.31+0.25vs Predicted
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14Sacred Heart University0.12-1.63vs Predicted
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15Drexel University-0.06-2.31vs Predicted
🎯 Predicted Standings
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4.94Dartmouth College3.180.1%1st Place
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3.78Hobart and William Smith Colleges3.650.2%1st Place
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4.73Fordham University3.250.1%1st Place
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9.94U. S. Military Academy1.220.0%1st Place
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9.69Bates College1.320.0%1st Place
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4.16Tufts University3.520.1%1st Place
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6.59U. S. Naval Academy2.510.1%1st Place
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8.7Cornell University1.740.0%1st Place
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5.27St. Mary's College of Maryland3.050.1%1st Place
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3.79Yale University3.720.2%1st Place
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10.85University of Buffalo0.870.0%1st Place
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9.25SUNY Maritime College1.570.0%1st Place
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13.25Columbia University-0.310.0%1st Place
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12.37Sacred Heart University0.120.0%1st Place
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12.69Drexel University-0.060.0%1st Place
Expected Outcome Heatmap (per Skipper)
| Skipper | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelsey Wheeler | 11.9% | 11.3% | 11.0% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 11.6% | 9.7% | 8.7% | 5.6% | 2.8% | 1.8% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Louis Padnos | 17.9% | 18.5% | 14.8% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 9.3% | 6.0% | 3.5% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Alecsander Tayler | 12.5% | 11.8% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 12.1% | 11.9% | 10.9% | 6.9% | 5.0% | 2.5% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Beckmann | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.2% | 2.0% | 3.3% | 3.2% | 4.7% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 15.4% | 14.4% | 11.8% | 5.7% | 3.0% |
| Edward Moan | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 3.0% | 4.6% | 5.7% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 12.9% | 15.0% | 15.3% | 9.9% | 6.1% | 1.9% |
| Willem Sandberg | 14.5% | 16.1% | 13.6% | 15.5% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 7.7% | 5.1% | 3.2% | 1.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Charles Peck | 6.8% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 7.2% | 8.1% | 10.5% | 13.0% | 15.0% | 11.8% | 7.9% | 5.0% | 1.9% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Colin Keil | 2.8% | 2.6% | 3.2% | 3.1% | 5.0% | 6.3% | 6.9% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 13.5% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 6.2% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| John Wallace | 9.2% | 9.2% | 10.9% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 11.7% | 12.6% | 10.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 1.9% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Joseph Kiss | 17.1% | 17.6% | 17.3% | 13.5% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Andrew Green | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 2.7% | 3.5% | 5.9% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 12.3% | 16.3% | 15.6% | 12.8% | 5.9% |
| Nicholas Wallinder | 1.8% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 4.5% | 4.9% | 8.0% | 7.2% | 13.5% | 15.0% | 13.8% | 11.8% | 9.1% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| Josiah Hyatt | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.7% | 2.7% | 3.7% | 5.0% | 7.6% | 12.8% | 23.1% | 39.6% |
| Brian Reilly | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.1% | 1.2% | 1.7% | 3.0% | 4.0% | 6.3% | 8.2% | 10.5% | 17.9% | 24.2% | 19.7% |
| Jeffrey Proko | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.8% | 1.2% | 2.3% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 5.2% | 6.7% | 10.2% | 15.3% | 22.9% | 28.4% |
Heatmap showing P(finish = rank) for each skipper. Darker cells = higher probability.